*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
In terms of the important finishing positions in the table, there’s a case to be made that this is the most vital single fixture remaining in the 2021/22 Premier League. No pressure, eh, lads?
This is the final game either of the title challengers faces against any side which has a realistic chance of either finishing in the top four or being relegated. Liverpool will be expecting a very difficult match.
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There are not many teams who can expose their insanely-high defensive line, but Tottenham Hotspur are one side who could.
And while the Reds have dropped points nine times in the league so far this season, only once have the underlying numbers suggested that they deserved to lose, that was away at Spurs.
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Saturday 7.45pm: Liverpool v Tottenham
TV: BT Sport 1 and BT Sport Ultimate
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Liverpool to win
Liverpool’s performance in that game at Spurs needs to be put into context. They were without nine players through injuries and illness, their most for any league games in 2021/22. They weren’t all bench fillers either. Virgil van Dijk was absent from the backline and what most people would consider Jurgen Klopp’s best midfield – Fabinho, Jordan Henderson and Thiago – were all out too.
The fact Tyler Morton started the game, when you’ve never heard of him and I might have just made him up, says everything. Everyone bar the referee would’ve sent Harry Kane off for a flying challenge on Andy Robertson midway through the first half too. It took all of that for Tottenham to get one of their better results against the Reds in recent times.
Klopp’s first match with the club was at White Hart Lane, and in total he’s faced Spurs 15 times, winning nine of the meetings and losing just one.The other problem for Antonio Conte is that while his team have good numbers on the road, they don’t come close to Liverpool’s stats at Anfield. Tottenham are fourth in the Premier League’s away table for expected goals, shots on target and clear-cut chances, but the Reds are top at home for all of them.
Though they won home and away against Manchester City, Spurs are the bottom of the ‘big six’ mini league for this season and have lost their other away matches against the rest of the top seven. A Liverpool win is the only logical choice for this match.
Both teams to score
Tottenham have a weird goal scoring record away from home this season. Only Chelsea and Liverpool have scored three-or-more goals on the road more times in 2021/22, but they’ve also drawn a blank on more occasions than the likes of Brentford, Brighton and Southampton.
To further confuse things, six of the nine goals Spurs have bagged against the other European Super League wannabes have come away from the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. They have also scored in their last four visits to Anfield, and in seven of the previous eight.
The Reds have a phenomenal defensive record at home this season though, conceding just seven goals. With two matches to play – Liverpool host Wolves on the final day – they’re on track to finish with their joint-second best goals against record at Anfield in their top flight history.
But the xG stats suggest they should’ve allowed 11 goals, and with Tottenham devastating on the counter at times, we’ll select both teams to score.
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Sadio Mane to Score Anytime
With the Reds having such a strong squad it’s risky to select a goal scorer as Jurgen Klopp is blessed with multiple excellent forwards and could rest any of them. It’s hard to see how he can leave Sadio Mane out though, with the Senegalese striker having scored seven goals in his last eight starts.
Mane hasn’t scored against Tottenham at Anfield for five years and he looks well set to end that barren home run with a goal here. Mane to Score Anytime is a nice price, too.
Over 11.5 Corners
Liverpool are unsurprisingly one of the Premier League’s corner kings. Only Manchester City have had more on home turf in this campaign, and no side has had more matches pay out on over 10.5 corners either.
Five of the last seven league games at Anfield have seen at least 12 corners, with three of them higher than that. And only one of Tottenham’s last six visits there has featured fewer than 11, so corners look guaranteed. We’ll take the Over 11.5 Corners option, Paddy.
Over 3.5 Cards
The previous meeting of these teams was the most card-heavy fixture the Premier League has seen this season. While two other fixtures also saw nine cards shown, Robertson’s red means the last clash between Liverpool and Spurs stands alone for Card Index points.
While that was extreme, there have been fiery clashes at Anfield in the past. There were six yellow cards shown in 2019/20 and eight players were booked three seasons earlier. Referee Michael Oliver doesn’t book players without good reason but these teams should give him ample opportunities to show Over 3.5 Cards here.
Liverpool v Spurs Bet Builder tips
Liverpool to Win
Both Teams to Score
Over 11.5 Corners
Sadio Mane to Score Anytime
Over 3.5 Cards
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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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