Bet Builder Tips: Our 40/1 flutter for Burnley v Southampton on Thursday

Our tipster Colin Harvey tries to unravel the madness.

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

Burnley v Southampton on the telly in the top flight on a Thursday night… where on earth to start with this game? The Clarets are looking for a new manager and are three behind Everton in 17th but have played a game more than the Toffees.

Southampton are still riding their usual rollercoaster and beat Arsenal 1-0 at the weekend after losing five of the six games prior, including at home to Watford. Burnley breathed life into their relegation dogfight by beating The Toffees three games ago before promptly losing to rock-bottom Norwich and blowing the chance to beat West Ham courtesy of some penalty-taking controversy.

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All three results are very much on the table here. I’m firmly of the belief that Burnley would have been better served by keeping Sean Dyche in the hot seat until the end of the season, instead they’ve got the brains trust of defender Ben Mee and U23s boss Michael Jackson. Will this game be a Thriller or just plain Bad?

Anything can happen, all I can do is crunch some numbers, unearth some trends and let the football Gods decide. Here’s your Bet Builder for Thursday night’s spectacle.

*A Bet Builder with these four bets pays at approximately 40/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

Thursday 7.45pm: Burnley v Southampton
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League

Southampton to Win

One thing we can say with some certainty is that Southampton are a streaky side. That win over Arsenal was their first for six games. Before that losing run they were unbeaten in seven games, winning four of those.

Both of these love a draw (Burnley 13, Southampton 12) and they’ve had a combined total of 25 across their 63 Premier League games this season – that’s 40% of all games played. The key difference between the two sides is that Southampton have been able to win nine while it’s a woeful four for The Clarets.

I genuinely think all three results are in play here and Paddy’s odds reflect that. The Draw is tempting but Burnley just lack enough quality for you to back them to get anything with any confidence. Southampton to Win is my play here as they might be at the start of another hot streak that could see them move up into the top half of the division.

Under 2.5 Goals

When Burnley step onto the field you back Under 2.5 Goals. It happens an awful lot and that’s normally because The Clarets refuse to score. Prior to scoring three against Everton three games back they had scored just one goal in the six games before.

Unders has landed 11 times in their last 14 games in all competitions. They don’t score but they don’t normally get hammered. Southampton, on the other hand, are more difficult to predict and they do have a tendency to fold and rack up the goals conceded.

However, with Burnley hard to breakdown but absolutely toothless you’d be surprised if this was a goal fest. The Saints almost-always score and have a leaky defence but they have seen Unders in two of their last three.

James Ward-Prowse to Score Anytime

Slim pickings in the goal scorer markets but James Ward-Prowse to Score Anytime offers some value. He’s a double threat from open play and, of course, from set pieces as well and is the Saints’ joint-second-top scorer this season.

He’s on eight for the campaign, one behind Armando Broja, and you just fancy him to get a few free kicks around the box or even a penalty here. You don’t want to give him too many chances and I fear Burnley might fall into the trap.

Over 5.5 Burnley Corners

For a team that hardly scores and is looking likely to go down at this stage, Burnley do rack up quite a few corners. Over their last seven games in the top flight they have been awarded 41 corners at an average of 5.9 per match. That run includes games against Manchester City and Chelsea where they got one and five respectively.

Over the same timeframe Southampton have conceded 33 at an average of 4.7 per match so the numbers are suggesting 5.5 corners is exactly where the line should be. With The Clarets being at home and desperately needing the win I can see Burnley getting Over 5.5 Corners as they push forward looking for something out of the game using one of their most trusted methods, set pieces.

Burnley v Southampton tips

Southampton to Win
Under 2.5 Goals
James Ward-Prowse to Score Anytime
Over 5.5 Burnley Corners

*A Bet Builder with these four bets pays at approximately 40/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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