Bet Builder Tips: Our 21/1 punt for epic Man City v Liverpool FA Cup clash

Our tipster Andrew Beasley's licking his lips at a repeat of last weekend's thriller.

Comments

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

It’s not very often in this game that you get to preview a match between the same two teams for two weeks in a row but here we are. Last week’s attempt to forecast a Manchester City vs Liverpool fixture went pretty well.

It was a score draw which was high on cards but low on corners, just as had been predicted, and just had occurred when the teams met at Anfield last October. The similarities between their two clashes in 2021/22 didn’t end there either.

WELCOME TO PADDY POWER NEWS!

Both games finished 2-2 after the home side led twice, the Reds should probably have had a man sent off and Kevin De Bruyne score a goal which deflected in off Joel Matip. With these teams so even over the last four years, with just one point separating them across their last 145 league matches since the beginning of 2018/19, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they played out another close game.

After all, three of the last four meetings have ended all square, as did their previous dust up down at Wembley, in the 2019 Community Shield.

*A Bet Builder with these four bets pays at approximately 21/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

Liverpool to win

Liverpool certainly had the easier Champions League task of the two sides in midweek. Jurgen Klopp was able to field a largely second string XI for his side’s draw with Benfica at Anfield while City had to indulge in the battle from Lord of the Rings, a.k.a. Helm’s Deep away, a.k.a playing Atletico Madrid at the Wanda Metropolitano. Diego Simeone’s Orcs may have ensured Kevin De Bruyne and Kyle Walker are out of action for this one too, which won’t help City’s cause.

Their xGD (expected goal deflections) will plummet if the Belgian is unavailable. Liverpool’s main issue against City this season has been playing poorly in the first half, so if they can correct that against their weary opponents here then they should be able to book their spot in their second cup final of the season with a Liverpool Win.

Over 2.5 goals

While it seems inevitable that both teams will score, Paddy is aware of that too and so the odds are very skinny. They’re only marginally better for Over 2.5 Goals but it seems just as likely.

There has only been one instance of either side drawing a blank in the last six meetings – Liverpool in July 2020 – and there has only been a single example with fewer than three goals. Even then (during a 1-1 draw at the Etihad in 2020/21), De Bruyne missed a penalty after each side had scored so we could easily be sitting on a streak of six consecutive meetings paying out on over 2.5 goals. This should be another which does so.

PepGuardiolaManCityAug21

Sadio Mane to Score Anytime

Last weekend’s Bet Builder would have landed had Mohamed Salah been one of the scorers, but he chose to assist a goal instead, the selfish so-and-so. The man he set up to score was Sadio Mane, and as the Senegalese was only used from the bench for half an hour on Wednesday night, he should be in Klopp’s starting line-up at Wembley.

City are his joint-second favourite opponent (having scored against them eight times) so back Mane to Score Anytime and be the main man here.

Under 10.5 Corners

We went low on corners last weekend and it was the correct choice as there were only five. They were all at the same end too, trivia fans (which is all of you, right?), as City had four in the first half and Liverpool’s solitary effort was after the interval.

There were only 14 spread across the two FA Cup semi-finals last season, and nine when these sides last met at Wembley (with both goals coming from set piece situations). Everything points towards not many corners once again, so we’ll take Under 10.5 Corners please, Paddy.

Over 4.5 Cards

There’s a lot of guff written about the rivalry between these teams being too friendly but it didn’t look that way when both had players booked for cynical fouls last weekend. The two meetings this season have featured a total of 11 cards, and while there are some teams both sides have only faced once, at this point neither club has seen as many bookings in their games against any other league opponent in 2021/22.

Liverpool fans were up in arms that Mancunian Anthony Taylor got the gig last week but they should be happier with Michael Oliver, who has awarded them 15 penalties over the years (compared to nine for City). He showed 10 yellow cards to these teams in the 2016 League Cup final (albeit that went to extra time) so there should easily be Over 4.5 Cards in this feisty match.

Man City v Liverpool tips

Liverpool to Win
Over 2.5 Goals

Sadio Mane to Score Anytime
Under 10.5 Corners
Over 4.5 Cards

*A Bet Builder with these four bets pays at approximately 21/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

FREE BET IF 1 LEG LETS YOU DOWN

If one leg of your 4+ fold Bet Builder fails to land, you get up to £/€10 back as a free bet. Customers can qualify for 1 Bet Builder Free Bet If 1 Leg Lets You Down per day up to £/€10. The free bets will be credited by 12pm the following day.

READ MORE

The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com right now

THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW

What do you think?