Football Tips: 13/1 punt among our Braga v Benfica Friday night best bets

Here's your chance to scout hotly-rated Benfica striker Darwin Nunez, who has been linked with some of the Prem's top clubs. And Spurs.

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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

There’s a big game in the Portuguese Primiera Liga on Friday, as third placed Benfica travel to Braga, who sit one place below them in the table. Whilst you would think both sides are relatively assured of qualifying for their respective European competitions this season, Benfica still have a realistic chance of climbing up to second, whilst Braga have Gil Vicente hot on their heels.

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Ahead of the game, we’re diving head first into the stats to find some betting value, with three top tips for Friday night’s match. Even if the prospect of passionate Portuguese fans doesn’t entice you, make sure you tune in to see one of Europe’s most unique and picturesque stadiums – with the Estadio Municipal de Braga built for the 2004 Euros, and carved into the side of a mountain.

Here’s our top tips for the game…

SC Braga v SL Benfica, Friday 1st April
TV: BT Sport 2, 8.15pm

Short Price: Both Teams To Score

When at home, Braga have only failed to score on three occasions this season, with an expected goals stat of 1.92 when playing at the Estadio Municipal de Braga. This comapres nicely to Benfica’s away record – they’ve scored in every game on the road they’ve played this season, and have an expected goals stat of 1.72.

Add to this that in 67% of Benfica’s games this season both teams have scored, owing to their strong attack, but leaky defence – they’re the joint-highest scorers in the league, but have conceded the most goals out of the top three sides.

As a banker, both teams to score seems as good as it will get.

Value punt: Benfica to score in both halves

We’ve already spoken about Benfica’s strong attack. Up top they’ve got 22-year-old Darwin Nunez, who’s bagged 22 goals already this season at a rate of one every 78 minutes that he’s played in. Like any young talent coming out of the Portuguese Primeira Liga, the Uruguayan is being linked with a move to the Premier League in the summer.

With 68 goals to their name this season, Benfica are a side with goals in them – on average 2.7 goals a game when away from home. And, since the turn of the year, they’ve scored in both halves in six of their 11 games – owing to their handy knack of scoring in stoppage time. This marries up quite nicely with Braga, who have conceded five goals in the last five minutes of halves in their 11 games in 2022.

With some reasonable looking odds, we’re backing the Portuguese goal kings to net in both halves.

Long Shot: Correct Score 1-3

Benfica haven’t lost in seven games, winning in five of those. They’ve also failed to win just three times on the road this season, meaning they have the second best away record in the league. Braga, meanwhile, have stuttered a little of late, winning just once in their last four games against a flurry of mid-table teams.

How are they going to fair against one of Portugal’s best teams? We think that a Benfica victory is not a ‘long shot’ by any means, but the odds from a correct score prediction are worth a look. As we’ve discussed, Benfica have a goal in them, but struggle to keep clean sheets – and both teams to score has featured as our short odds pick.

This prediction throws together everything we’ve talked about for these two teams into a neat little punt. But if you’re looking for some seriously long odds, adding 22-goal striker Darwin Nunez as the first goalscorer into this score prediction would stretch your odds even further.

Braga v Benfica Tips:

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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