Bet Builder Tips: Our tasty 26/1 Man City v Tottenham punt for Saturday night

Can tipster Andrew Beasley make it back-to-back winners after last week's 25/1 shot got over the line?

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

When you’re the only team in the Premier League who have lost their previous three matches, the last fixture you want to see on your calendar is Manchester City away.

But that’s the challenge facing Antonio Conte, a man whose honeymoon period ended so long ago that his co-workers are begging him to stop going on about the wedding.

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Saturday 5.30pm: Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Football

“A winning mentality means that when you play I am willing to kill you to live,” Conte said after his side lost 2-0 to Wolves last weekend and he was no doubt thinking about killing most of his defenders after their first half debacle in that match.

If they’re going to have any hope of getting a result here, Spurs’ greater problem may be at the other end of the field.

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*A Bet Builder with these four best bets pays at approximately 26/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

Alternative handicap: Manchester City to win -1

Only five teams in the division go into the weekend having conceded fewer away goals than Tottenham this season. The issue is that only three – all of whom are in the bottom four – have scored fewer goals on the road. Spurs have won two away games under Conte, but they needed a 96th minute winner at Watford and two goals after the 94th minute to turn a defeat into a victory at Leicester.

Their struggles in the biggest away games stretch back even further. Since the start of 2018/19, Tottenham have played 17 league matches at the homes of the other English members of the proposed European Super League, and they only have two wins (both against Manchester United).

It’s also six years since they last won at the Etihad Stadium, though they have had their moments since. A 4-3 defeat in 2019 was enough to get through a Champions League tie on away goals, then the next league meeting in Manchester ended in a 2-2 draw.

But in both cases, City were denied crucial last-minute goals by VAR, and though their form at home in league games against the rest of the Premier League’s big six hasn’t been emphatic – with three wins from the last six – they should maintain their stroll to another league title with three points here. Having rattled in five away from home in the Champions League in midweek, City should win by at least two goals to cover the alternative handicap.

Both teams to score: Yes

Can I just shock you? I think Spurs will score, despite what I just said earlier. Tottenham may have only scored 10 goals away from home in the 2021/22 Premier League but they have had chances worth 17.8 expected goals. This conversion rate of 56% is comfortably the worst for teams on the road, and they have the third best xG per game for away matches too.

Over the last three seasons Spurs have also been one of the top sides for seeing both teams score when not in front of their own fans. Leicester have scored and conceded in 33 of their 48 away matches in that time, with Tottenham just behind on 31. 

Granted, they could make a five aside team of their managers in that relatively short period, but it has remained a fairly constant theme even if it has cooled off a touch in 2021/22.

While City have an impressive defensive record at home (and everywhere, to be honest) they have conceded fewer goals than the underlying data suggests, so there’s a definite chance that both teams score here.

Over 12.5 Corners

The Bet Builder preview for last Saturday evening’s kick-off was a successful one. That was in part thanks to there being plenty of corners, and in their entirely predictable win over Norwich, Manchester City fell just one short of meeting the ‘Over 12.5 corners’ tip on their own. 

Pep Guardiola’s side are on track to have the most corners any Premier League side has had in a season during his time in England this term. As Tottenham’s games have averaged a healthy 10.7, we’ll take the over 12.5 corners once again

Over 3.5 cards

These teams have very good disciplinary records this season. No team has received fewer yellow cards on home turf than City, and only five teams have fewer on the road than Tottenham.

But there were four bookings in the corresponding fixture last season, and the referee for this match – Anthony Taylor from, um, Manchester – has averaged four yellow cards per Premier League match in 2021/22. Add in that he has also shown four reds, the joint-most in the top flight, and it makes sense to take the over 3.5 cards option. 

Man City v Spurs Bet Builder Tips:

Alternative handicap: Man City -1
Both teams to score? Yes
Over 12.5 corners
Over 3.5 cards

*A Bet Builder with these four best bets pays at approximately 26/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

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