*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
The Premier League might have put its feet up this weekend but Paddy’s relentless team of top football traders never take a breather.
And, because these guys border on obsessive over the beautiful game, they’ve furnished us with their Cheat Sheet for this weekend. Our head honcho Jason Murphy is joined by ready underlings Emmet O’Keefe and Brian McDonnell to deliver some winning wagers across the weekend and across the competitions.
WELCOME TO PADDY POWER NEWS
In the sights this week is a hearty combination of international and league action with most of it appearing on a TV screen near you.
The lads take in everything from AFCON to Craven Cottage and deliver a tip each in the realms of a banker, long shot and something for your Bet Builder. It’s a all right here in one handy page for you to keep as your secret weapon or to share with your adoring mates.
Bournemouth to win at Barnsley
Bournemouth have faltered in their bid for automatic promotion to the Premier League with four defeats in six, but have an ideal opportunity to get back on track facing the Championship’s worst team in Barnsley.
The Tykes are winless in their last 10 – including seven defeats – and haven’t had a better xG than their opposition in any of their last 12 games.
Scott Parker’s side did at least have the better xG in each of their last two defeats and are still have one of the best squads in the division.
I’m more than happy to take the price on offer for a Bournemouth win.
Vincent Aboubakar to have 2 or more shots on target for Cameroon v Gambia
I’m siding with shots over goals for this particular quarter-final match up. Vincent Aboubakar tops the goalscoring charts in AFCON at with six goals, including two penalties. So why not just back him to score anytime against Gambia?
You can do that, and he will be also slight odds-against to do so. However, Gambia’s defence has been solid throughout the tournament and they are yet to concede from open-play. Based on our expectations, Gambia have conceded three goals less than expected, but 22% more shots than expected.
So Cameroon shots rather goals is the starting point, before we take into account Aboubakar who has averaged over three shots on target per game this tournament and taken over 50% of Cameroon’s shots in total.
Senegal to beat Equatorial Guinea
With a group containing Algeria and Ivory Coast, not many expected to see Equatorial Guinea qualify from Group E in second place. Consecutive 1-0 wins over Sierra Leone and under-par defending champions Algeria was enough to see them through where they upset dark horses Mali 6-5 on penalties in the Last 16 after a goalless 120 minutes.
Senegal managed to top their group despite scoring just one goal (and that was a penalty) before defeating Cape Verde 2-0 in the Last 16. They’ve not been at their best, but are yet to concede a goal.
With the likes of Idrissa Gueye, Sadio Mane, Keita Balde and Kalidou Koulibaly all expected to start, they should progress in the 90 minutes. If you want to boost the price you can get Senegal to Win & Under 2.5 goals at 6/4 which would be a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline.
Over 4.5 goals in Fulham v Blackpool
This selection has clicked in each of Fulham’s last four league matches as Marco’s Silva potent attacking unit looks close to unstoppable.
Fulham have scored 73 goals this season which is a whopping 28 more than any other team in the Championship, including a remarkable 22 in their last four matches.
Blackpool are a decent side but unlikely to be able to keep Fulham’s multitude of attacking weapons at bay. The Cottagers have conceded two goals in each of their last three matches so we should be hopeful of an open game and at the price this punt looks well worth a punt.
ACCA: Under 1.5 goals in each of the four AFCON Quarter-Finals
On average a Premier League game would see 2.75 goals in 90 minutes, but at AFCON we traders always price for a lower goal expectancy. On average, we have calculated as seeing 2.18 goals in 90 minutes.
In reality AFCON has produced even less than that already low expectation. We expected to see 96 goals in the 44 AFCON matches so far. Instead, we have only seen 80 goals – an average of just 1.81 goals per 90 minutes.
Why so low compared to the Premier League? It could be poorer decision-making on when and where to shoot, or a more defensive approach by teams in tournaments so less shots and therefore less goals.
The ‘Under 1.5 goals’ selection has clicked in 52% of matches so far, essentially 10/11 to land in any game. Apply that 10/11 across four matches, and you would be looking at a little over a 12/1 shot. For these four quarter-finals, the ‘Under 1.5 goals’ ACCA will be around twice that price. It is a long shot, but could be a good accumulator to have an interest over the weekend…
Gambia to qualify v Cameroon
I think the fairytale can continue this weekend for the 150th ranked country in the world in their debut AFCON tournament. Gambia have really impressed so far, defeating Tunisia and Mauritania and earning a creditable draw against Mali in the group stage before upsetting Guinea in the Last 16.
The pressure will be off against hosts Cameroon, who despite having won all four of their games so far, have not looked too convincing, especially against a 10-man Comoros team last time out.
Gambia have a decent squad with the majority playing in the top tiers of Europe. They are yet to concede a goal from open play, conceding just the one from the penalty spot in the group stages.
This could go all the way to penalties, with the Under 2.5 market currently priced at 2/5. If it does go to extra-time, you’d much rather have Gambia in your betslip at over 4/1 than Cameroon.
Double Chance: Birmingham Win or Draw
Birmingham look a slightly big price at over 2/1 to win the match given Derby are still one of the worst teams in the Championship based on xG.
Wayne Rooney has undoubtedly done a superb job given the incredibly adverse circumstances the club has faced this season and has lost two regular starters this month with Graeme Shinnie moving to Wigan and Phil Jagielka heading to Stoke.
For all Rooney’s heroics, Birmingham are a better team than Derby and should have enough to avoid defeat at Pride Park.
Scott Hogan to have 1 or more shot on target
This is a solid leg for a Bet Builder if enjoying this game with your Sunday roast. Scotty Too Hotty is a man in form, with three goals in his last four appearance for Birmingham.
He is around 5/2 to score anytime, but if you are looking for something a bit stronger for your Bet Builder then to have just the 1 Shot on Target seems like a good start and ties in well with Emmet’s pick above.
With just a little over 1,600 minutes of Championship football this season, he is averaging two shots every 90 mins.
Under 3.5 goals
It might be a short-priced pick, but it’ll boost this Bet Builder with Emmet and Jason’s selections to bigger than 2/1 and one that I really like the look of.
Wayne Rooney is doing a wonderful job at Derby to have them off the bottom of the table and in with a shout of survival given their points deduction and further off-field problems at Pride Park. Whilst their games haven’t been memorable for lots of goals (only three of their 27 matches has seen over 3.5 goals), the key to their decent points return has been their tightness at the back.
They have the third-best defence in the league, conceding only a single goal more than table-toppers Fulham. They’ve drawn more games than any other Championship team this season, and I can see this one being another tight and cagey affair with goals at a premium.
FANCY DOUBLING OR TREBLING UP?
We’ve got all of our trader picks above priced up below as Paddy Power multis.
BANKER BET TREBLE
Bournemouth to win at Barnsley, Senegal to beat Equatorial Guinea and Vincent Aboubakar to have 2 or more shots on target for Cameroon v Gambia
Over 4.5 goals in Fulham v Blackpool and Gambia to qualify v Cameroon combined pays at around 24/1. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Jason’s Africa Cup of Nations accumalator of Under 1.5 Goals in Gambia v Cameroon, Tunisia v Burkina Faso, Egypt v Morocco and Senegal v Equatorial Guinea
DERBY V BIRMINGHAM BET BUILDER PUNT
Birmingham to win or draw, Scott Hogan to have 1+ shot on target and Under 3.5 goals in the game pays at around 2/1. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.