Football Tips: Paddy’s pair of punts for Tuesday’s AFCON action

Our footie tipster Paddy Murphy has a couple of picks in mind.

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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Tuesday’s AFCON matches see Senegal take on Cape Verde in the day’s first Last 16 match. Senegal are short-odds favourites here and finished Group B with one win and two draws.

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Cape Verde qualified as the best of the third-ranked sides, while Morocco as Group C winners face Malawi and are very short odds to advance to the next round. Let’s get into the stats and form then and dig up some value in the betting markets.

16.00: Senegal v Cape Verde – First Half Draw and Under 1.5 Goals

Senegal didn’t exactly set the world alight with their Group B displays. Indeed, the Lions scored just one goal over their three games, winning one and drawing two. Cape Verde won one, drew one and lost one over their three Group A games. Their scoring record isn’t much better than their opponents, only managing to chalk up two goals over their three games, conceding two as well. The Lions conceded no goals over their respective group games.

The sides have met three times over the last six years, most recently in June of last year with Senegal winning all three games by a scoreline of two goals to zero. Senegal haven’t quite gelled yet and Cape Verde love to frustrate sides, they’ve drawn with two of Africa’s heavy hitters of late, Cameroon and Nigeria and don’t have much to fear here in facing a side that seem to have forgotten they need to score goals to win football matches.

With this more than likely having a cagey start we’re looking at exploiting some first half stats here. Over their combined six tournament games so far, only one goal has been scored by these sides in the first 45 minutes – and three of those six games saw the opening half end level and in two of their last three meetings against each other two of them went into the half-time break at 0-0.

With those stats, we’re going with a First-Half Draw and Under 1.5 Goals for very decent odds indeed.

19.00: Morocco v Malawi – Anytime Correct Score: 2-0

Morocco won two and drew one over their three Group C matches, scoring five and conceding two. Malawi won one, drew one and lost one, scoring two and conceding two. The market is very much on the side of the Atlas Lions’ here and with good reason too seeing as they’re unbeaten over their last 10 in all competitions, winning eight and drawing two, losing one on penalties.

Malawi have won just two of their last eight games, drawing one and losing five. Worst of all they scored just five goals over those eight games going scoreless in five of those eight. Morocco have kept eight clean sheets over their last 10 and they should keep that impressive run going here. We’re looking at the Anytime Correct Score of 2-0 to Morocco here.

Africa Cup of Nations tips

16.00: Senegal v Cape Verde – First Half Draw and Under 1.5 Goals
19.00: Morocco v Malawi – Anytime Correct Score: 2-0

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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