Football Tips: Paddy’s team of traders pick their weekend Cheat Sheet

Fulham to win at Stoke

Traditionally one of the most competitive leagues in the world, this year has proved no different. Marco Silva’s men find themselves five points clear at the summit. A sticky patch in recent months saw them fail to pick up a win in five – drawing four and losing one. It’s safe to say they have bounced back in emphatic fashion. Three wins, 19 scored, four conceded.

Stoke host the Cottagers and know themselves all too well about the struggles of trying to get back to England’s top flight. Since relegation, they’ve failed to register a top-half finish in three seasons. Currently, they find themselves in the hunt for a playoff berth – just three points back with a game in hand but have been far too inconsistent, especially at home.

I fully expect Fulham’s quality and relentless firepower to tell and this looks as solid a banker you’ll find all weekend.

Huddersfield to win at Reading

This looks an ideal opportunity for Huddersfield to climb into the Championship’s top 6 playing against the worst team in the division according to Expected Goal difference.

Reading have lost four of their last five league matches including a 7-0 thrashing by Fulham and they were comfortably beaten by Luton last time out at the Madejski Stadium.

On the other hand, Huddersfield are unbeaten in their last seven and are outperforming pre-season expectations to be on the fringes of playoff contention. They are more than good enough to expose Reading’s defensive vulnerabilities and The Terriers’ current price makes plenty of appeal.

Man Utd v West Ham: Jarrod Bowen First Goal Scorer

There are a few outsiders I like the look of this weekend but it is actually a goalscorer that has really caught my eye. Jarrod Bowen has been in sensational form of late and has six league goals to his name (Ok, maybe I’m still rewatching his miss from last week against Leeds and wondering if I still fancy this bet!).

For goalscorers, I’ll also do a bit of digging into the underlying data – Bowen’s really stands out – in the ‘Non-Penalty Expected Goals’ ranking he sits 4th only behind Liverpool’s Mo Salah, Sadio Mane & Diogo Jota.

I fancy West Ham to score in this one and they should get after Man Utd early with a couple of days extra rest. David De Gea once again saved Man Utd midweek with some first-half heroics. Brentford’s Mathias Jensen missed a glorious chance early on – if that falls to Bowen it’s a goal.

Man Utd v West Ham: Over 4.5 Goals 

It’s hard to see this being anything other than a high scoring affair. As Rob mentioned, United were very fortunate to only concede one goal in midweek and of the Premier League’s top 10, only Leicester have conceded more goals than Ralf Rangnick’s side.

As pointed out on these pages last week, West Ham have become one of the most entertaining teams to watch in the Premier League and are more vulnerable defensively with Kurt Zouma and Angelo Ogbonna both on the treatment table. In fact, Over 4.5 goals has clicked in three of West Ham’s last five matches and it’s easy to imagine United nicking a 3-2 victory in unconvincing fashion.

Both Teams To Score

There’s a free fiver Bet Builder this Sunday and I’m keeping it simple here for my leg – Both Teams to Score.

Spurs failed to net over two legs in the recent Carabao Cup semi-final and will be desperate to put things right here. It’s hard not to mention the dramatic end to their midweek win over Leicester and you’d imagine Conte’s men are full of belief after such a memorable victory.

If Tottenham are a side full of momentum and belief, it’s fair to say Chelsea are the complete opposite. Just one win in their last seven league games has seen Tuchel’s men fall right out of the title race. A defence ravaged by injuries and fatigue but still one with enough quality to find the net themselves.

Tottenham to win

While Chelsea did brush Tottenham aside with relative ease over two legs in the Carabao Cup semi-final, all does not appear as should with Thomas Tuchel’s side, especially in front of goal. Chelsea have only scored eight in their last seven and haven’t been unlucky with that goal return according to Expected Goals.

Ben Chilwell and Recce James’ absences in the wing-back positions have been keenly felt and has made Thomas Tuchel’s system ineffective. Tottenham are a flawed side but do have Antonio Conte who is maximising this limited team’s ability with six wins and two draws in their last eight matches.

They are coming off a moral-boosting stoppage-time win at Leicester and look well worth chancing.