Bet Builder Tips: Our 35/1 punt for Southampton v Man City on Saturday night

Our tipster Andrew Beasley's studied the stats ahead of this one.

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There was a time when to win the Premier League a team ‘only’ had to be the most consistent over the nine-month season, they didn’t need to sustain a superhuman run of form. But then Chelsea put together a 13-game winning streak on their way to the title in 2016/17 and every subsequent champion has posted a sequence of between 14 and 18 consecutive victories.

Saturday 5.30pm: Southampton v Manchester City
Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League

Manchester City have won their last 12 matches and whether they take three points home from St Mary’s Stadium on Saturday evening or not, it’s safe to assume they will be lifting the trophy aloft in May. But they won’t want to give the chasing pack (Liverpool) the slightest ounce of encouragement either.

While Pep Guardiola’s side are of course red-hot favourites to win this match, Southampton did come away from the reverse fixture with a 0-0 draw. Can they go a step better on their own patch?

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*A Bet Builder with these four best bets pays at approximately 35/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

Manchester City to win

The Saints weren’t far from winning in Manchester in September. They were awarded a penalty and Kyle Walker was shown a red card, only for both to be overturned once the VAR had hit their football randomizer button.

Even then, they were the one side so far to have had more shots on target than City at the Etihad in a league game this season. Sure, the score on that front was only 2-1 but it’s a start. And three of the last four meetings on the south coast have been close run things. The Citizens won 3-1 in December 2018 but the others ended 1-0 one way or the other.

But as much as Southampton have lost just once at home this season, holding the likes of Manchester United, Tottenham and Leicester to draws, it’s impossible to suggest anything other than a Win for City.

The champions, both reigning and elect, will be well-rested having had a week to prepare for this match and their only key absentee looks to be Riyad Mahrez (and he’s out of AFCON already anyway). City should be able to cruise to their 13th consecutive league win with a minimum of fuss.

Under 2.5 goals

Yer man Paddy thinks there’s going to be several goals in this match, but I’m not convinced. Sure, these teams might be third and fourth in the ‘total goals per game over the last eight matches’ form guide (which is a real thing, promise) but the south coast has been starved of entertainment, on the whole, this season.

The only ground which has hosted fewer matches featuring at least three goals than St Mary’s is the Amex, home of Brighton and Hove Albion. Once City inevitably score, they’ll close the game down and deprive Southampton of the ball and any realistic hope of an equaliser. The visitors might score again but the stats say there’s value in backing Under 2.5 Goals here.

Over 12.5 corners

But if you get excited by corners then this match might just kick your Saturday night off in style. There were 13 of them when these sides last met, and they’ve collectively played 14 other league matches this season in which this marker was reached, too.

It’s no surprise to see City have had the most in the division, but Southampton are the best-of-the-rest behind the top three sides in the Premier League for corners despite being rooted in mid-table. The Saints probably won’t have as many as they often do here, of course, but the teams should be able to muster up Over 12.5 Corners between them easily enough.

Under 2.5 cards

There probably won’t be too many cards though. The last two meetings have seen just three bookings in total, and three of the last six clashes have seen no more than two each as well. They’ve also got one of the top flight’s least card-happy referees in the shape of Simon Hooper running the show. Among the current refs who’ve done at least 40 Premier League games, only one shows yellow cards less often than he does.

Despite City’s reputation for tactical fouling, and the assumption that teams have to kick them to stop them – though they often don’t get close enough – they are second bottom in the division for total cards per game this season. With those stats and Hooper on the whistle, Under 2.5 Cards looks a good bet.

Southampton v Man City tips

Manchester City to Win
Under 2.5 Goals
Over 12.5 Corners
Under 2.5 Cards

*A Bet Builder with these four best bets pays at approximately 35/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

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