Football tips: Expect to see goals in this 24/1 Tottenham v Chelsea Bet Builder

Our tipster Shane O'Brien expects the Blues to get through to Wembley in this London derby.

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Chelsea appear to have done much of the heavy lifting in this Carabao Cup semi-final tie in the first half of last week’s first leg, scoring twice to establish a relatively comfortable buffer over their London rivals. The Blues are undefeated in their last nine encounters with Tottenham, last losing to Spurs in January 2019 at the same stage of the League Cup.

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Tottenham v Chelsea: Carabao Cup semi-final, second leg (Agg: 0-2)
Wednesday, January 12 7.45pm

Sky Sports Football & Main Event

Their win over Spurs last week came at a vital time in Chelsea’s season, simultaneously breaking a three-game winless streak at home and securing their first domestic clean sheet at Stamford Bridge since the end of October. They followed that win up with an unsurprisingly comfortable win over Chesterfield in the FA Cup at the weekend and will hope to continue to build momentum ahead of a crunch must-win clash against Manchester City at the weekend.

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The Draw

Chelsea ran out 3-0 winners at Spurs in a league meeting early in the season but face a side that has significantly improved since Antonio Conte took over from Nuno Espirito Santo. Spurs are yet to taste defeat in the league under the Italian, an impressive achievement considering they lost five of their opening ten league games under Nuno.

However, they have also failed to really convince under the Italian, especially in recent games against Southampton and Watford in the league and Morecambe in the cup. They should have enough to avoid another defeat but might not have enough to give themselves a chance of progressing. The draw offers the best value here.

Both teams to score

Chelsea may have kept a clean sheet in last week’s first leg, but it was very much an outlier in terms of their recent form. Last week’s shut out was one of just three clean sheets that Chelsea have kept in their last 13 games in all competitions, a quite staggering statistic for a side that kept 12 clean sheets in their opening 19 games of the season.

Chelsea can’t keep the goals out at the moment, even conceding against non-league Chesterfield in a manner that they simply wouldn’t have a few months ago. Spurs will fancy their chances of breaching the Chelsea defence but can hardly be relied upon themselves, even with Conte’s tactical nous. Spurs have conceded in eight of their 13 games under the ex-Inter Milan boss, including games against Morecambe in the FA Cup and NS Mura in the Conference League. It seems inevitable that Chelsea will score against them for the 10th game in a row.

Antonio Conte

Over 11.5 corners

Last week’s clash saw just six corners in total, but that figure should rise significantly with Tottenham set to force the issue and test Chelsea’s resolve in a bid to fight their way back into the tie. Spurs have won 44 corners in eight league games under Conte at a rate of 5.5 per game, while they have conceded 33 in the same eight-game spell at a rate of just over four per game.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have won 51 corners and conceded 31 in their last eight league games and have won at least five in each of their last seven league games. They also won five against Tottenham last week and it appears highly probable that they will do so again on Wednesday. Spurs are additionally more likely to up the ante in front of their own supporters and should come close to matching their average under Conte, if not more.

Under 40 booking points

Spurs and Chelsea were once involved in the most ill-disciplined Premier League game of all time when the clubs accumulated 12 yellow cards in a single game as Tottenham lost their heads as their title dreams disappeared in a cloud of smoke at Stamford Bridge in May 2016. Those days are long gone now, however.

There was just one solitary yellow card dished out in last week’s first leg, while substitute Timo Werner was the only player to be carded when the teams met in the league back in September. Spurs boast the fifth-best disciplinary record in the league this season and have amassed just 31 cards in 18 league games.

WHAT ARE BOOKING POINTS? 

Here you’re betting on how handbag-ish the game will get. Yellow cards count for 10 points, red cards count for 25 points.

They have collected just nine yellow cards in their last nine games in all competitions, with four of those coming in a particularly thunderous game against Liverpool before Christmas. Chelsea are 12th in the league’s disciplinary table but have still only collected 33 yellow cards in 21 games this season, while they have only picked up more than two yellow cards in one of their last ten games – when they collected four against Brighton just after Christmas.

They may pick up a few yellow cards for time-wasting if they need to run down the clock, but it is unlikely to be anywhere near the Battle at Stamford Bridge from six years ago.

Tottenham v Chelsea Bet Builder tips

The Draw
Both teams to score
Over 11.5 corners
Under 40 booking points

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