Football Tips: Paddy’s top traders pick their banker, value and long-shot punts in our Christmas Cheat Sheet

Arsenal to Beat Norwich

Arsenal will be the staple of many a punter’s accumulator and it’s easy to see why. Norwich don’t have the required quality to be a Premier League side with their XG numbers matching up with a meagre points tally of just 10. Arsenal have the 3^rd best record in the league over the last 15 matches and the re-emergence of Gabriel Martinelli has given their attack some much needed dynamism.

Double Chance: Southampton to Win or Draw at West Ham

West Ham have beaten the likes of Liverpool and Chelsea at home this season (both 3-2) which shows they can score against the best teams in the league but cannot keep them out. Remove those results, though, and West Ham’s home record against teams around them or below them is not as impressive.

They failed to beat the likes of Palace and Brentford, teams similar in stature to the Saints. With doubts over key man Michail Antonio being fit, it points to Southampton or Draw Double Chance as my NAP of the fixtures.

Tottenham to beat Crystal Palace

Tottenham are starting to build some momentum under Antonio Conte and home advantage should be a big factor here, where they’ve only lost against Chelsea and Man United. They’ve beaten the teams you would expect them to on paper: Aston Villa, Leeds, Brentford and Norwich who you would have in and around the same level as Crystal Palace.

Brentford to beat Brighton

Brentford are not the team you want to face without your first-choice centre halves but that looks to be the task ahead of Brighton. Captain Lewis Dunk is definitely out and doubts surround both Adam Webster and Joel Veltman. Brentford will test the physicality of any defence through their strike pairing of Bryan Mbeumo and the returning Ivan Toney. Given Brighton’s absentees and a winless run spanning eleven Premier League matches, I’m more than happy to take a chance on Brentford.

I could just do a copy and paste job on what Emmet has said! When two traders come up with the same tip (independently) then it is usually one to take note of. It’s not the most exciting game, and it might not win, but at the current price Brentford are value. Fun fact for anyone but Brighton fans, they haven’t won now in 12 games since beating Swansea in the EFL Cup in September!

Aston Villa to beat Chelsea

Steven Gerrard has made an immediate impact by improving Villa’s struggling defence which was conceding close to two goals per game under Dean Smith. They’ve only shipped five goals in his six matches in charge, despite having to play Manchester City and Liverpool in that stretch.

It was the performance against City that really caught the eye with Villa giving the champions as close a game on expected goals as few teams have managed all season. Thomas Tuchel should have a stronger hand to choose from than in previous weeks but Chelsea look like a limited side in attack that have no idea what their best forward line is.

Double Chance: Leicester, Arsenal, Palace & Man Utd all to Win or Draw

I looked at the 117 games in the last four seasons at the fixtures between December 26 and January 4, and based on closing prices home teams performed ~0.1 of a goal worse than closing prices expected. Is that players taking advantage of being at home as opposed to in a hotel for an away game?

To give context, if your home team was 13/8 shot, they (under)performed like a 7/4 shot. The teams that performed best over this holiday period were Leicester, Arsenal, Palace and Man Utd. Those four teams are also away from home for the 26^th/27^th fixtures. They are around a 130/1 shot all to win, but if they overperformed on those fixtures like they did over the last four seasons, then they should be 40/1.

But for a better chance of the selection landing, I’ll take all four teams to avoid defeat in the Double Chance market.

Double Chance: Norwich to Win or Draw v Arsenal

Jason says not to over-complicate things, but I wouldn’t be so sure of an Arsenal win at Norwich. Their away form has left a lot to be desired this season, with just three wins from nine. They went to Everton a few weeks ago on a good run against a team in freefall and lost 2-1. That score line flattered them too.

Norwich (like Everton did) will be missing some players, but this is the shortest Arsenal will be away from home this season and I wouldn’t fancy having them onside.