Football Tips: Our deadly 7/1 double for Sunday’s Bundesliga action

Our footie tipster Paddy Murphy has studied the form so you don't have to.

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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Sunday sees the Bundesliga closing down for the winter break and we’re taking a look at the two final fixtures of the year here. Freiburg are in free fall after what had been an incredible start to the season and face a Bayer Leverkusen side who are inching their way in the opposite direction after a slow start to the campaign. Koln face Stuttgart in the later kickoff and with Stuttgart winning just one of their last five on the road the market is already piling on the home side. Let’s dig in then and find some value in the markets.

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14.30: Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen – Over 3.5 Goals

After an incredibly strong start to the Bundesliga season Frieburg are slipping down the table and have now won just one of their last six in the league. Prior to this they had been on a great run of 10 matches without defeat. Leverkusen have won three of their last five in the Bundesliga, drawing one and losing one and away from home have won two, drawn two and lost one.

Die Werkself will be desperate to take the three points here as it could potentially put them just three points behind Borussia Dortmund over the break and we should see plenty of goals in this one. The hosts are averaging 1.57 goals per home league game while the visitors are scoring a whopping 2.50 on their league travels and we’ve seen Over 3.5 in four of Leverkusen’s five most previous away games in the Bundesliga.

While Freiburg’s struggles are very real they’re still scoring plenty of late, scoring eight over their last five in the league and eight over their last five at home while the away side have netted 15 over their last five in the league and 12 over their last five on the road. With those stats we have to go with Over 3.5 goals here.

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16.30: Koln v Stuttgart – Koln to Win and BTTS

Both sides come into this clash with two wins, two draws and a loss over their five most recent Bundesliga games. Koln have the superior form though when it comes to comparing home vs away stats. The Billy Goats have won two, drawn two and lost one over their five most previous home fixtures, scoring 11 and conceding eight. Stuttgart have won just one of their last five on the road, drawing two and losing two, they’ve scored five over those games and have conceded seven.

Tempting then just to go for the Koln win but there’s more value to be had here by going further into the stats. BTTS has landed in four of Koln’s last five at home and in three of Stuttgart’s last five away games and the away side have scored in all but two of their seven away Bundesliga games this campaign. Koln have been so good in front of goal that they’ve scored at least one in seven of their eight home games and have scored two or more goals in six of those eight games. The smarter value then is in combining these bets, Koln to Win and BTTS is where our money is going here.

Sunday’s double:

14.30: Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen – Over 3.5 Goals
16.30: Koln v Stuttgart – Koln to Win and BTTS

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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