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We have an intriguing Madrid Derby to sink our teeth into on Sunday night. Real come into the game in incredible form, enjoying an undefeated run of 12 matches in all competitions – winning 11 of them. Atletico’s recent La Liga form has improved, but their overall form has seen them succeed in just four of their last 10 games.
We’ve combed through the stats to find some value in the markets and we have found the three best bets for what will be the 169th league meeting between these old rivals.
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Real’s form is scarily good. There are still a few doubters out there but over recent weeks, particularly in their matches against Inter and Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League, along with domestic clashes against Sevilla and Real Sociedad in recent weeks. They’ve shown in those outings that their talents are plenty good enough when coming up against tougher sides to break down.
They’ve now gone eight games without losing in La Liga, and against their oldest of rivals they’re going to be fired up to keep that run going. Of their seven home league games they’ve won five, scoring 16 times giving them an average of 2.29 goals per game.
Sunday 8pm – Real Madrid v Atlético Madrid
Watch on Premier Sports 1 / LaLigaTV
Atletico had a tough run over October and most of November, where they won only three of their 10 games in all competitions and we must mention too that their league record away to Real has only seen them winning twice over their last seven visits across town. The form of Los Colchoneros on their league excursions isn’t the best either, winning just two of their last five on the road, drawing two and losing one.
No doubt Diego Simeone’s side will dig in and attempt to frustrate Carlo Ancellotti’s team here, but their defence isn’t nearly as solid as it was. Indeed, they’ve conceded nine over their five most recent away games in all competitions and eight over their five most previous away La Liga games. Real’s look unstoppable of late, and we’re backing them to take the three points against an inconsistent Atletico.
Los Blancos have so far scored eight first half and also eight second half goals over their La Liga games this campaign. Atletico’s stats show that they’ve scored just three opening period goals, but have netted 12 times in the second half of play. Over the five previous league meetings between the sides where Real have been at home, there have been seven goals scored – six of which were after the break.
Obviously these games tend to have a tense start, so we’re banking on most of the action occurring after the half-time interval. The stats showing some very healthy data regarding second half goals for both sides over their recent form, and previous head to heads meetings too, we can’t refuse this bet.
We’ve made a strong case for Real to take the three points here and while the visiting side aren’t in great form, they’re still scoring plenty of late. Indeed, they’re averaging 2.14 goals per away La Liga game this season and the hosts have only kept three clean sheets over their last seven home games in all competitions. It’s really is hard to see Real’s defence keeping the likes of Luis Suarez, Antoine Griezmann quiet for 90 minutes.
Real have netted two goals or more in eight of their last nine games in all competitions, and on home turf have scored at least two in four of their last five. With Ancellotti’s men in such great form, we see the trend continuing here.
We’re taking some insurance though, as it could end with more goals. But, the odds for the Anytime Correct Score of 2-1 are too high for us to turn our nose up at.
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