* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
A few I’s and T’s are yet to be crossed in the final group stage matches of the Champions League on Tuesday night and we’ve gone through the best of the games on offer in the aim of finding some value bets.
RB Leipzig have had a disappointing group stage and are now fighting for Europa League qualification, meanwhile Man City are already assured of finishing top. Milan can qualify in second in Group B, but need to beat Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool. In the other game in the group, both Porto and Atletico Madrid can qualify should Milan lose at home and in our final match, Real Madrid host Inter where the winner will finish top of Group D.
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Leipzig’s injury table has been a bit busy of late, but the market hasn’t totally priced them out of contention here. Indeed, with City already through, their manager Pep Guardiola will surely make a a raft of changes. Of their 23 games in total this season, they’ve only been up around their current price three times so far. Incidentally they won two of those three games, losing the other.
Both teams are full of goals, Leipzig have scored 25 over their 14 in the Bundesliga with City netting 32 over 15 in the Premier League. The hosts have grabbed plenty in the Champions League too, with 13 over their five games and the visitors have scored 17 over their previous five.
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Both Teams scoring here looks nailed on, but digging further into the stats we see that Leipzig have scored 16 second half league goals this term, scoring five second period goals over their Champions League group stage games/ Elsewhere, City have scored 11 second half strikes over their five. With those stats, we have to take a bite of the Both Teams To Score In The Second Half price.
Milan are going very well in the Serie A, winning 12 of their 16 games and scoring a very healthy 35 goals – most of those games were without their head bottle washer, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, too. A win for the home side will see them through regardless of what happens in the other game in the group, so they’ll be going for it here.
With Liverpool already through and manager Jurgen Klopp should use the opportunity to make a few changes by bringing in some fringe players. Thus, the market has priced the Reds as outsiders here with the hosts hovering around Evens at the time of writing.
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The home side aren’t enjoying a great run at the San Siro though, winning just two of their last five. While, over their five most recent away games Liverpool have won four and lost one. Mo Salah’s name really stands out here. The Egyptian King has six over his five previous Champions League ties this campaign and that adds to his 13 from 15 in the Premier League. His record means we’re getting a great value price for him to add to his tally.
A draw will do for Porto to reach the next stage of the competition should Milan also draw or lose in the above game. Atletico Madrid, on just four points, need to win. Atletico’s big problem this season has been in defence. Long seen as the stingiest team in Europe, they’ve now conceded 16 goals over their last 10 games. Away from home they’ve let in nine over their five most recent matches on the road.
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Porto are in good form, winning four of their last five games and they’ve also won nine of their previous 10 games at the Estádio Do Dragao. Over 2.5 Goals being seen in eight of those games and in four of Atletico’s five most recent away games too. With so much on the line, goals are the order of the day here.
Both teams are enjoying an incredible run of form, sharing the same stat of now going 11 matches undefeated in all competitions. Both are through to the next round, but a first-placed finish will be preferable for both sides as it means they won’t have to face another top-spot finisher in the following round.
The two sides have also won four of their last five home/away fixtures in all competitions and there’s really very little to separate them. Both are good enough and enjoying great form to beat the other, however that doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll see a draw here.
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Although, Inter do have a slight advantage with Real’s Karim Banzema ruled out with an injury and they’ve scored more over their recent away games, nine compared to six at home for Los Blancos. It does certainly look like advantage Inter here, but Real are a tough nut to crack at home and the safest option here is Both Teams to Score.
17:45 RB Leipzig v Man City: Both Teams To Score In The Second Half
20:00 AC Milan v Liverpool: Mo Salah To Score Anytime
20:00 Porto v Atletico Madrid: Over 2.5 Goals
20:00 Real Madrid v Inter: Both Teams to Score
* An accumulator on these four best bets pays at approximately 18/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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