* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
There’s a Champions League-sized hole in my heart on a Wednesday evening. Not only does that sound like the opening line to a Harry Styles song, but it’s also a severe medical issue if it’s true.
Anyway, due to the random scheduling machine that is the Premier League, we’ve got a Wednesday match night so long that by the time you get to the end of the fixture list, you’ll be preparing the 3pm kick-offs on Saturday.
TV: Watch all the games on Amazon Prime Video
You know the drill by now. Or if you’re new around here, I bring you through sides who’ve been unlucky in front of goal and we put that into context of who they’re playing this week to see if they can upturn in their fortunes.
As always, sometimes a good striker will prove to be the difference in the disparity and sometimes a lack of one goes the other way – but these things generally play themselves out accordingly. Here’s your bumper Both Teams To Score acca for the midweek action.
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Southampton are probably at the lowest ebb of any side in the Premier League right now. That loss to Norwich will sting and it doesn’t seem to be acting as a counterpoint to springboard from. This has been Ralph Hassenhuttl’s legacy – vastly underperforming in xG – and that’s continued this year as they’re the only side with five goals fewer than their xG total.
But, they do lack discipline, and while Jamie Vardy accounts for great conversion rates, Leicester create chances in the channels where Southampton are weakest. This game will bypass midfield and have a high chance of goals.
Chelsea aren’t conceding goals because they’re designed not to concede goals. Watford at home are a bit of a conundrum in that they rely a lot on pace and strange passages. They won’t have that fluid freedom against a Blues team who don’t play as high a line as you’d think. Putting Chelsea in a Both Teams To Score acca is a not a good idea.
West Ham might be the story of the year bar their inconsistencies – which you come to expect from a squad that isn’t set up to persevere – but in isolation, they score some spectacular goals. That’s, of course, not sustainable and their xG overperformance of near-five is alarming. Only Chelsea and Liverpool – both who possess attackers who can explain that disparity – are higher. Brighton are due a bit of luck, but it won’t come here.
Wolves are my favourite case study in the Premier League. They went from non-stop overachievement in the first two top-flight seasons under Nuno Espirito Santo to this amalgamation of being goal-shy. Perhaps the combination of Diogo Jota/Raul Jimenez was the key to them papering over cracks, but if there’s one team about to go on a tear of results, it’s Wolves. And Burnley are as consistent in an xG sense as you could want. They’re better away from home, so if they’re going to score, it’ll be here.
I’m being genuine when I say this – Steven Gerrard may well stifle City here. It’s not due to the fact they’re underperforming or anything – they’re the closest side to their xG total in the league. However, he knows how to drill players to never stop running and taking up passing lanes. And above all else, there’s not a hope in hell that Villa find the net here either.
These games are typically ridiculous and we all now this. Despite their shortcomings, Everton’s xG is respectable and Liverpool have firepower right up until the African Cup Of Nations. I’d not like to be sitting on this game not wanting goals.
19:30 Southampton v Leicester: Both Teams To Score (Yes)
19:30 Watford v Chelsea: Both Teams To Score (No)
19:30 West Ham v Brighton: Both Teams To Score (No)
19:30 Wolves v Burnley: Both Teams To Score (Yes)
20:15 Aston Villa v Man City: Both Teams To Score (No)
20:15 Everton v Liverpool: Both Teams To Score (Yes)
* A Bet Builder on these six best bets pays at approximately 30/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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Wednesday football tips
TREBLE: Phil Thompson’s 7/1 trio from the 7.30pm kick-offs
EURO FOOTY ACCA: This 22/1 four-fold takes us off around the continent
PHIL THOMPSON: My 3 top tips for Everton v Liverpool
TRADER TIPS: A Merseyside derby NAP from Paddy’s numbers man
BET BUILDER: Earn a free bet with this 27/1 Everton v Liverpool punt
PHIL THOMPSON: Aston Villa v Man City best bets from our man Thommo
Thursday football tips
BET BUILDER: This Man Utd v Arsenal punt clocks in at 33/1
PHIL THOMPSON: 5 power plays from Thommo for Man Utd v Arsenal
ACCA: Thursday’s 19/1 four-fold from across Europe
PHIL THOMPSON: 13/2 shot among Thommo’s Tottenham v Brentford bets
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- Amazon Prime Premier League fixtures: Paddy Power odds for the midweek games
- Need team news to complete your Bet Builder? Well, now Paddy’s got you covered