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When people say they hate international football, they’re not thinking about the World Cup final or the Euros, they’re undoubtedly referring to matches like this.
England have faced Andorra five times over the years, scoring a total of 20 goals and not conceding a single one in reply. But it would be asking a lot of the Andorrans to get on the score sheet against the might of the Three Lions when they only netted once in their last Nations League campaign, which comprised six games against the collective majesty of Faroe Islands, Latvia and Malta.
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Saturday 7.45pm: Andorra v England
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Then again, by those standards, they’ve been banging in the goals lately. Andorra have four in their six World Cup qualifiers in this group and have beaten San Marino 2-0.
Let’s be realistic though. The question here is not who will win but by how many goals.
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Handicap betting: Draw (+3)
These teams last met only one month ago for their first tussle since 2009, with England reserves running out comfortable 4-0 winners.
If ‘reserves’ sounds harsh, that’s exactly how Gareth Southgate played it. The home match with Andorra was sandwiched between trips to play Hungary and Poland, with what you would consider to be his first choice XI starting both of those games while an entirely different set of players began the Wembley win in the middle.
As there are only two fixtures to navigate in this international break – phew – it is not clear how Southgate will play this one. As England host Hungary just three days after this match who will provide a sterner test (though anything other than a home win would be a shock) it would not be a surprise to see some of the England big guns held back here.
In fairness to Andorra, they don’t tend to get embarrassed when playing at home too often. England won by two and three in their only previous visits to the principality, and the previous meeting was only 1-0 until Jack Grealish, Mason Mount and Harry Kane came off the bench to collectively earn and score a penalty. Whomever Southgate selects it won’t be a record-breaking scoreline. But England should win by three so we’ll go for a handicap draw.
Both teams to score: No
Andorra might have got the odd goal now and again recently, but they didn’t look remotely like scoring when they played England. In what must be a first, and a delight to stat nerds everywhere, their only shot of the match came from within their own half. Marc Vales, a centre-back, was the man responsible, which doesn’t say much for the attacking prowess for the forwards in the Andorran side.
Whatever XI Southgate goes for will dominate possession and limit the home side to pot shots at best. Andorra will draw a blank and it’s a very obvious ‘no’ in the both teams to score market.
Anytime goalscorer: Jesse Lingard
Jesse Lingard hasn’t been playing too much football lately but when he has the Manchester United man has contributed a fair bit. In his last 10 appearances for club and country (which includes summer friendlies – not ideal but what are you going to do about it?), he has scored five goals and provided two assists. Not bad when the run-outs in question only add up to 369 minutes of match action.
The one game in the 10 in which he played 90 minutes was England’s previous meeting with Andorra, and he picked up a brace and an assist. With only six midfielders in the squad, Lingard should feature here and continue his good form.
Player To Have 2 Or More Shots On Target: Raheem Sterling
One man who won’t want to be rested for this match is Raheem Sterling. The 26-year-old has only started four games in all competitions for Manchester City this season, and only completed 90 minutes twice.
And while he doesn’t seem to be in Pep Guardiola’s good books, Sterling is a key man for Southgate. He’d be a perfectly sensible any time goalscorer bet, but although he has scored in three of his last seven internationals, he’s had two or more shots on target in four of them and that provides better odds. Bank on Sterling to have at least two against Andorra and our bet builder is in good shape.
Andorra v England tips
Handicap betting: Draw (+3)
Both teams to score: No
Anytime goalscorer: Jesse Lingard
Player To Have 2 Or More Shots On Target: Raheem Sterling
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