* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Before we get down to business, there’s a couple of things worth noting here. The first is that Jurgen Klopp rested Virgil van Dijk ahead of the Milan match in Gameweek 1. That gamble looked remarkably suspect after an hour as Milan totted up an xG of 2.6 and Liverpool escaped with their lives.
So, Porto – a downgrade? Not quite. Seen as the easiest fixture in the group, Porto went to Madrid a fortnight ago and battered them. The basic stats suggest it was even, but the xG scoreline read 0.3 – 1.6 in Porto’s favour. Now I ask you – who does that to a Diego Simeone team?
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So, with this game appearing to be the absolute banana skin embodiment, what are the three shrewdest bets you can make? Let’s take a look.
Short-Priced Punt: Both Teams to Score
Sadio Mane misses a lot of gilt-edged chances, you know. He’s known for his superb footwork and body control that lands him chances that others simply couldn’t create. But he’s wasteful. With that being said, there’s too much firepower in this Liverpool team not to find the net.
It’s Porto people have questions marks over, but I assure you that Mehdi Taremi is due. He put up an xG tally of 1.2 last week and failed to convert. That’s due to change and given Liverpool overcommit in wide areas, he’ll likely benefit from some more two-v-twos when they recover the ball high up the pitch.
Value Play: Half-Time: Porto
They start quickly and disrupt thereafter. It’s their blueprint. In lots of ways, it’s Diego Simeone-esque and that’s why last week so commendable. Out-Atleti-ing Atleti is no mean feat.
Liverpool are prone to idle spells in games this year. It’s maybe the biggest criticism of them, which is funny if not identified by the fact that this is the best defensive start to a Premier League season ever.
If Porto are to take something from this, they know they’ll have to startle them early, so anticipate Sergio Conceicao filling them with the same confidence boost I’m giving you about backing them. They can crack overtly defensive sides, so why wouldn’t they be able to score against a Liverpool side who effectively play 3-2-5 with the ball?
Long Shot: Porto to Have a Red Card
Last week against Atleti, Porto had six yellow cards. There were nine in total – the most cards in an Atleti game in the Champions League in over five years. So, consider what you know about that side and contemplate how violent they must have been.
Liverpool frustrate teams; hence the number of penalties they win. When you think of sides possessing players with quick feet, you think Salah and Mane. Don’t be surprised to see the Reds play against ten for part of this.
Porto v Liverpool betting tips:
Short-Priced Punt: Both Teams to Score
Value Play: Half-Time: Porto
Long Shot: Porto to Have a Red Card
* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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