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Another Saturday, another Bet Builder. This week we’re going to try using my new and improved Premier League betting model in order to inform this one. Let’s hope it works half as well as the Cristiano Ronaldo transfer back to United. Both sides in this one are coming off Carabao Cup wins during the week.
Man City, despite trailing for mere minutes, went on to demolish an unsuspecting Wycombe Wanderers 6-1. Chelsea, on the other hand, went to penalties against Aston Villa, winning 4-3 thanks to missed efforts from Ashley Young and Marvellous Nakamba. Both sides have been in good scoring form of late, and we expect to see goals in this one. Now, let’s get to Bet Building.
Saturday 12.30pm: Chelsea v Manchester City
BT Sport 1 and BT Sport Ultimate
According to the model, Man City currently sit with a 52% likelihood of winning this match up. This is going to be one of the highlight games of the year, it’s just a shame that it’s an early kick-off. Despite Chelsea’s great form of late, we expect to see Man City to Win this one. There’s just a 9% chance of a draw in this game.
This is going to be a close one. Man City average 2.32 goals per game. Chelsea, meanwhile, are averaging 1.73 goals per game.
Both, however, are quite defensively strong – only conceding on average 0.69 and 0.67 goals per game respectively. But enough of the maths. This means that the game should finish around 2-1 which is, believe it or not, Over 2.5 Goals.
Both Teams To Score In The First Half? Yes is exactly what it says on the tin. Both sides possess more firepower than your mate Paul the morning after a night of Guinness and kebabs. Look at the names on each team sheet, they’re incredible. The challenge isn’t figuring out if both teams will score, but who from each team will score.
You’ve got to back both teams to score in this riot. Half of Chelsea’s goals this season so far have been scored in the first half. For Man City five out of their 11 goals this season have been scored in the first half. That’s got to be worth an informed punt.
Jack Grealish has been a key creative part of this Man City side since the start of the campaign. He’s also appeared in every Premier League game so far for the champions in their title defence.
He’s got one assist so far and he leads the Premier League in xT (Expected Threat – another new-fangled numbery way of saying he creates a lot of goals) with 0.35. I’m backing Jack Grealish to get an Anytime Assist.
Chelsea v Man City Bet Builder
Man City to Win
Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score In The First Half? Yes
Jack Grealish Anytime Assist
A Bet Builder on these four best bets pays at approximately 29/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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