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Yano what I was thinking the other day? This season has seen multiple teams be competitive so far; it’s featured rip-roaring crowds, Leeds and Man United, Arsenal clearly lacking a holding midfielder and a whole host of big names kicking off at 3pm.
I’m half expecting to check the BBC teletext for results. But ultimately, no. It took us five matchweeks, but we’re finally being blessed/cursed with four 3pm games featuring none of the big four or actual top four.
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Now, that isn’t a negative because of course as we can now watch the big games on television and not have to split our focus, but there’s a severe lack of star power in your standard kickoffs. Especially now as James Rodriguez has signed for.. *checks notes*.. Al Rayyan. But if we’re being honest, the one thing it does is extend our focus.
If United or Liverpool are kicking off at 3pm, then we tend to fixate on that game and ignore the remainder. Now? We can place all our attention on secondary fixtures. And you know what dull slates are made for? Winning multiples. As usual, I’m back with some xG-based projections for the 3pm kickoffs. Let’s take a look.
* An accumulator on these four best bets pays at approximately 16/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
* All of the games below kick off at 3pm on Saturday.
Everton v Norwich – Yes
This is the kind of game you want for BBTS accas. The reason being the overachieving side are at home, meaning they’re still likely to score, even if the numbers are projecting a slump.
Let’s look. The only sides underachieving against their xG more than Norwich are Burnley, Arsenal and Wolves. They’re a slow buildup side and are always, by nature, going to be slower getting into their groove in a faster-paced league.
But now they’re in a situation you really want – going away from home against a side getting more goals than they’re working for. As Everton frustrate, Norwich will smell points and Everton’s 7.5 xG tally might be seventh in the league, but their numbers are only less massager than Chelsea and Man United’s.
Leeds v West Ham – No
Michail Antonio is an outrageous talent. David Moyes is a very talented manager. West Ham are getting their edge back. But they’re ultimately still due a bit of bad luck. They’re fifth in xG overachievement and Leeds’ xG is a very fair reflection of where they’re at – scoring just half a goal less than they’ve earned.
With neither side due an upturn in fortune, it’s wise to err on the side of caution.
Leicester v Burnley – Yes
Leicester score at home, so your entire focus should be on Burnley. Again, these aren’t hunches. They’re statistics reflective of a side’s creativity versus their end product. That generally evens itself out during a year, so we can predict peaks and troughs.
Burnley’s three goals this year are less than half of their amassed xG. That means they’re overdue. Leicester’s last two Premier League clean sheets have come against xG darlings Wolves and relegated West Brom. Before that? Bottom side Sheffield United. Before that? Wolves again, and relegated Fulham.
We have to go back to January for their last clean sheet against a side who weren’t relegated or Wolves. If there’s a team to turn your xG luck against, it’s Leicester.
Watford v Newcastle – No
Two sides who fail to impress, lack a major striker and who are overachieving against their xG totals. It’s a big no from me. And there’s something quite daunting about expecting anything remotely positive from Watford or Newcastle.
Even if both sides were due an excess in chance conversion, I’d find it hard to push you towards them landing it. So expecting failure from these two is both the statistical and emotional decision.
Saturday’s Premier League BTTS acca:
Everton v Norwich – Yes
Leeds v West Ham – No
Leicester v Burnley – Yes
Watford v Newcastle – No
* An accumulator on these four best bets pays at approximately 16/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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Saturday football betting tips
- BET BUILDER: Check out this 29/1 punt for Man City v Chelsea
- SATURDAY FOOTY ACCA: Our 28/1 bet from across Europe
- BET BUILDER: Liverpool to batter Brentford in this belting 27/1 shot
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