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Saturday games at 3pm are sacrosanct. Much like Greggs sausage rolls, Cilla Black finding people lovers and expecting support at major tournaments – standard kick-offs in the Premier League are British institutions.
And I’m here to try and tell you who you need to back to score in the traditional Saturday slot. Here’s the acca, I’m backing:
If any fixture on this planet should send shivers down the spines of a squad, it’s this one. Arsenal – with the backbone of a serpent, and Burnley; the unified embodiment of a packet of extra-strong mints – facing off in a town in Lancashire.
Some games are over before they begin – and that’s without even accommodating for the previous trauma that The Gunners have suffered against them. You know how this one goes as a result, but it’s now focusing on goals. Arsenal have netted once, but created enough chances to have landed nearly five.
Burnley have amassed roughly the same xG total, but have found the net on three occasions. For those under-performances to date and the fact probability tells me Arsenal can’t have five Premier League games in-a-row where one side fails to score, it’s a yes from me.
Do I hold out hope that Watford’s Premier League-low 2.3 xG can land us an away goal against a team who are due considerable luck as their underperformance is third-worst in the league? Absolutely not.
But, I do believe this is a moment where we see which one of these is being relegated. Given commitment to philosophy and a headstrong Troy Deeney now in Birmingham, I reckon Norwich hold the advantage here. This is the toughest fixture to call to date, but when there’s a severe lack of players who can score from distance, I worry.
Pep Guardiola told everyone that his side are going to be tired coming into this game. Now, they’ve netted five times or more in their last three home games, so I won’t be too concerned about them scoring.
However, I do believe Southampton have major chances to win the ball higher up the pitch as the City squad recover from either tiredness or a lack of starts. Guardiola has named the same XI a few times this year already, which he never normally does.
So if he either switches players in and out, or opts to roll out the same side one more time, things won’t be squeaky clean like they normally are. Southampton will score, and possess a 1.7 xG underperformance rate – the sixth-highest in the division.
I thought when Crystal Palace got rid of Roy Hodgson that they’d drop that notion of being absolutely rubbish one week and turning the tables the next. Well, no. Although their xG is better than Leeds, Leicester, Spurs and Arsenal! Unfortunately, in this situation, Liverpool rested Virgil van Dijk in their Champions League game, so it’s curtains for The Eagles.
15:00 Burnley v Arsenal – Both Teams To Score: Yes
15:00 Norwich v Watford – Both Teams To Score: No
15:00 Man City v Southampton – Both Teams To Score: Yes
15:00 Liverpool v Crystal Palace – Both Teams To Score: No
* An accumulator on these four best bets pays at approximately 13/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
If one leg of your 4+ fold Acca lets you down, you get up to £/€10 back as a free bet. Customers can qualify for 1 Acca Insurance per day up to £/€10. The free bets will be credited by 12pm the following day.
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