* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
The first match after an international break is never easy to predict, especially when it falls after the closure of the transfer window.
We only have to look back to the first set of matches after the October break last season. Southampton and West Ham picked up unlikely 3-3 draws at Chelsea and Tottenham respectively, while Manchester City only beat Arsenal 1-0. Madness.
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Players inevitably pick up knocks on international duty as well, making team selections very tricky for managers. At the time of writing, Aston Villa are without nine of their squad for the trip to Stamford Bridge, which will only make an already difficult task even tougher.
These picks in a Paddy Power Bet Builder will give you odds of around 22/1. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Chelsea to Win
The loss of the two Emilianos (Buendia and Martinez) will hurt them particularly hard, as they are their most creative player and first choice goalkeeper respectively.
But it isn’t all roses for Chelsea either. Reece James is suspended after his red card at Anfield last time out, while N’Golo Kante and Romelu Lukaku may miss the match too. Aston Villa took four points from the Blues last season too, so can they pick up anything here?
Their two positive results come with caveats though: Frank Lampard and the Champions League final (which sounds like the worst Harry Potter knockoff imaginable).
Lamps was in charge of Chelsea when Dean Smith’s side earned a 1-1 draw at the Bridge last December, while the Blues were perhaps distracted by thoughts of their continental cup final clash with Manchester City when losing 2-1 at Villa Park on the final day of the league season.
However, if there was any distraction hampering Chelsea that day it only affected their finishing. They had seven clear-cut chances, the most by any away team in a Premier League match in 2020/21.
And while Villa were good against the big sides last season – also beating Liverpool, Tottenham and Arsenal (twice) – this is why the home side will win. The Villans were shambolic in their previous away game at Watford and Chelsea will be able to create chances while holding the visitors at arms’ length.
Both Teams to Score – No
It may be that Villa can follow their example of their West midlands rivals West Bromwich Albion and score five goals at Stamford Bridge against Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea, but I think we can rule that out. Smith isn’t a master of incisive, devastating football like Sam Allardyce, is he?
That 5-2 win for the Baggies is really looking like a weird fever dream now. The Blues have played 21 other league games under their current gaffer and have conceded just nine goals in them (three of which were penalties and one was an own goal).
To their credit, Villa only failed to score in three of their away matches last season but no team who has been in the top flight since the summer of 2019 has had fewer home games in which both teams scored than Chelsea.
It has also only occurred in two of their 11 home matches under Tuchel, so don’t expect both teams to score here.
Under 2.5 Goals
Chelsea might have beaten Crystal Palace 3-0 in their opening home match of the campaign but they don’t normally score that many goals.
In fact, that game was the first in any competition in which the Blues have hit a visiting team for more than two goals since Tuchel took over.
While Villa will be more susceptible to conceding if Martinez misses out, they don’t allow much to the opposition. Only five teams gave up fewer clear-cut chances away from home in the 2020/21 Premier League, and they’ve only allowed one in each match so far this season.
With Chelsea’s last three goal scorers all set to be out the Blues won’t score too many, so there should be under 2.5 goals between the teams.
Mason Mount to Score Anytime
Lukaku loves scoring against Aston Villa, having netted in his last five appearances against them, but as he is set to miss out we’ll add Mason Mount to our coupon.
He scored the winner last time the Blues beat Villa at home, and he’s fifth in the Premier League this season for most expected goals without scoring. There’s no guarantee but good players who rack up chances without bagging a goal don’t tend to wait long to break their streak.
Under 11.5 Corners
The final spoke in our Bet Builder wheel is the corners market and we’re looking for there to be no more than 11.
As there have only been an average of six in Aston Villa’s matches this season – the fewest in the division – we have a good chance. Chelsea’s average of 13 suggests otherwise, but their 45 minutes with 10 men against Liverpool (who had eight corners in that time) has unfairly skewed their total.
Chelsea v Aston Villa tips:
Chelsea to Win
Both Teams to Score – No
Under 2.5 Goals
Mason Mount to Score Anytime
Under 11.5 Corners
These picks in a Paddy Power Bet Builder will give you odds of around 22/1. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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