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Our lives are engrained with moments of deliverance. If you’re not sure what this is – if you’re over 25, think of Tim Robbins on his knees outside of Shawshank penitentiary in the most overrated film of all-time.
If you’re under 25, it’s that GIF of the chap in the rain with his arms in the air. Bloody Gen Z. While I might enjoy people telling me I’ve spoiled a film that’s nearly thirty years old and my mentions being full of threats for same, I much prefer being slaughtered for my BTTS picks, so we’ll get back to that right now.
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Anyway, deliverance. It’s like a moment of relief after a sustained period of hardship – which is exactly what the return of the Premier League after a lengthy international break is. Especially if you’re on the panel who defends Stephen Kenny with every breath.
Through the first three weeks, I’m 11/14 on these picks which is a mark I’m exceptionally proud of – but there’s been one out of joint each week, meaning I’m yet to hit a home run. Thankfully this week offers us fatigue to keep onside, so strikers returning from international duty will be half asleep. Let’s cash in.
These picks in an accumulator will give you odds of around 48/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Arsenal v Norwich – Yes
Apart from the absolute hilarity that comes with talking about Arsenal given that they’ve yet to score – they’ve also got the lowest xG tally – indicating that not only are they not scoring, they’re not giving themselves any chances to score that are clear-cut either.
Now, what it does also indicate is that they’re still a top-three underperformer from where they should be, so they’ll likely score a goal even if they replicate their weak efforts to date. Norwich, conveniently, are second on that list, so we can believe they’ll net as well. Job done.
Brentford v Brighton – No
Brentford and Brighton are a glorious matchup for week four, simply because they’re both the closest teams to their xG total in terms of what they’ve produced so far. Brentford are marginally underachieving while Brighton are marginally on the plus side of that equation.
Generally without any sense of injustice, motivation is hard to come by, apart from both teams seeing this as a big opportunity to win a game. However, neither operate too well with the ball comparative to some of their more polished league mates.
Leicester v Man City – Yes
Jamie Vardy always scores against Man City, and Man City are finding a gear. I’d love to sit here and offer additional insight but I’d only be running up the word count for the sake of it. And why would you want to watch this and not hope for goals?
Man United v Newcastle – No
There have been no bigger overachievers from an xG perspective this year than Manchester United. In fact, they’re one of only two teams I’d consider to be massively overachieving so far. Of course, the Ronaldo factor means they will – and that’s one of the few things that will steer me away from my model.
Do I hold out hope for Newcastle though, in a game where all the focus will be on not allowing Ronaldo to score a hat-trick against them again – the only side he’s done so against in the Premier League? Not a chance.
Southampton v West Ham – No
West Ham have scored ten times. Ten. They’ve created enough chances to average just over six, so please afford the freak that is Mickey Antonio all the credit in the world for doing what he does.
Ultimately though, they’re bound to come unstuck a few times this year – and in his 100th game at the Hammers, wouldn’t it be funny and borderline typical of Moyes’ career if he couldn’t beat Southampton after the rapid-fire start?
Watford v Wolves – Yes
Poor Wolves. They’ve a higher xG than everyone bar City, Liverpool and West Ham so they’re well overdue as their overall play has been particularly positive.
Watford, conversely, are struggling – but with them being at home and making the symbolically-important move-on from Troy Deeney, I want to back them to score. This is probably the leg that I’d have ignored and gone the other way on in the opening three weeks, so I’m trying to learn my lesson.
3pm Both Teams to Score Acca
Arsenal v Norwich – Yes
Brentford v Brighton – No
Leicester v Man City – Yes
Man United v Newcastle – No
Southampton v West Ham – No
Watford v Wolves – Yes
These picks in an accumulator will give you odds of around 48/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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