* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
So, as we all expected, Arsenal are in the bottom three and David Moyes is setting the Premier League pace again. Right. The one thing about the Premier League is that it rarely goes with narrative. You’ve almost always got one hunch that lets you down and for that exact reason, I decided we should take back control and move the goalposts this year.
Instead of tipping up match odds this year, we decided to roll with this 3pm BTTS acca – a slightly more enjoyable viewing experience, particularly if your own team is involved and you’re not having to punt against them.
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Although if your team is even halfway decent, there’s no hope of them ever seeing a 3pm kickoff due to the magical fixture bingo ball machine. Mad how money can change that. But speaking of money, we’ve managed to go 7/9 so far in the opening two weekends – and while that hasn’t transpired into a winning acca, we’re clearly ahead of the curve.
And do you know what? Isn’t three a lucky number? Well, it is for everyone bar Arsenal who are about to get thumped by City. Happy Saturday, folks – here’s this week’s analysis.
The below picks in a Paddy Power Acca will give you odds of around 17/1. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Aston Villa v Brentford – Both Teams to Score: No
Villa are massively overachieving in this early stage in front of goal. They’re flashing moments of brilliance from John McGinn and Danny Ings which aren’t sustainable. Brentford, for all that they looked good on opening night, were actually quite woeful against Palace, producing an xG of just 0.98.
And that’s against a side who actively give you possession high up the pitch. With Villa being flattered and Brentford looking spineless in games where they have to do anything, you’d be mad to believe both find the net here.
Brighton v Everton – Both Teams to Score: No
Brighton are converting their chances at a rapid rate, and while that’s just a small sample size, there’s a lot of truth to be found in the idea that they’re getting what was due to them from last year.
Their issue has always been converting their chances, and they’re clearly producing now. But Rafa Benitez is sure to start tightening things up at the back, particularly after shipping two at Elland Road last week, and with them also performing a goal ahead of their xG total through two games, it’s enough to make me think they’ll come unstuck here too.
Newcastle v Southampton – Both Teams to Score: Yes
The biggest issue so far for Newcastle has been the fact they’ve played a West Ham side that nobody was beating, and been stung by two miserable Villa goals. While I can’t sit here and sing their praises, they have looked semi-functional and the xG total they put up against West Ham was the ninth-highest of the 40 displays so far this year.
The game did open up considerably so take it with a pinch of salt, but the fact is – they’re the only side to throw up an xGA of over three in a game this year and those defensive problems look in huge trouble against a team who’ve so much pace in the final third. The Saints have leaked four goals to date, but their xGA actually sees this as a stroke of luck rather than them being hard done by. Both teams will score.
Norwich v Leicester – Both Teams to Score: Yes
We don’t really know what Norwich are capable of, particularly as both of their games so far have seen them competitive only in moments where the game is gone beyond doubt. Their Expected Goals tallies for those moments are twisted because of it, and while I do enjoy some of the finer passages in midfield, they’re likely to be found lacking in forward areas, even if Leicester have coughed up an xG total of nearly so far as they get over the loss of Wesley Fofana.
Jamie Vardy hasn’t scored in any of his last twelve away games and that’s foreign territory for him. I’d back him to find the net here, but I couldn’t say the same for the hosts as Leicester will emphasise playing on the break again.
West Ham v Crystal Palace – Both Teams to Score: Yes
Palace are the only side yet to reach the one-goal xG threshold so far this season. Their combined xG of just 0.82 is concerning beyond all measure and probably ensures we should be building a statue of Roy Hodgson down those ends. But more to the point, they’re producing these sub-half-chances in such non-moments that it feels like they’re benefitting from slower play from their opponents than actively producing anything themselves.
Luckily for them, West Ham are a tad reckless in their approach this year – handing massive chances to even Newcastle because they’re so in control of games – so they could be quids in.
BTTS 3pm Premier League acca:
Aston Villa v Brentford – Both Teams to Score: No
Everton v Brighton – Both Teams to Score: No
Newcastle v Southampton – Both Teams to Score: Yes
Norwich v Leicester – Both Teams to Score: Yes
West Ham v Crystal Palace – Both Teams to Score: Yes
The above picks in a Paddy Power Acca will give you odds of around 17/1. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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SATURDAY FOOTBALL TIPS
- BET BUILDER: Tackle our 37/1 Bet Builder for Man City v Arsenal at 12.30pm
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