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Borussia Dortmund take on Bayern Munich in the German Super Cup on Tuesday night. The home side have won both of their opening games in German competitions so far while Bayern could only manage a 1-1 draw with Borussia Monchengladbach in their Bundesliga curtain-raiser.
Obviously a huge game for both sides and interestingly, largely thanks to Bayern having a new man in charge, Dortmund’s odds to win here are the lowest they’ve been against Bayern in quite a few years. This should be a cracker so we’ve gone deep into the stats and form to find a four-legged Bet Builder.
The below picks in a Paddy Power Bet Builder will give you odds of around 12/1. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Four of the last six meetings between the sides at The Westfalenstadion have seen Over 3.5 goals landing and indeed, if we look at matches played at both stadiums, Over 3.5 goals has actually landed in four of their last five meetings. With Dortmund’s Erling Haaland and Bayern’s Robert Lewandowski already off the mark this season both teams will be chomping at the proverbial to get one over their Der Klassiker rivals here.
As mentioned above Dortmund have had the better start to their campaign and have looked hungry. Much has been made of Bayern’s new manager Julian Nagelsmann’s less-than-perfect beginning to his Bayern reign (the team won none of their preseason friendlies) however they looked hungry against ‘Gladbach in their season opener and on another day would’ve scored a hatfull. It’s all about attack with both of these sides and like in previous meetings we should see plenty of goalmouth action here.
Of course the first name on peoples’ lips for Der Klassiker is Robert Lewandowski and rightfully so. Poland’s captain has played 23 times against his former side scoring 22 goals. When he played for Dortmund he only scored five goals in 14 games against them.
In scoring 22 times over 23 games though his odds are obviously a bit on the low side here and while he probably will score, Haaland has scored four already this season over his two games and has four in his four appearances against the Bavarians.
The odds for BTTS are a bit slim but we can exploit some of the recent stats to bolster a bet that should come in pretty quickly. Over both of the most recent games played between the sides at Dortmund, both teams have scored in the first half. Indeed, this bet has landed in all three of their most recent games at both stadiums.
Both teams had pretty healthy stats for FH goals last season in the Bundesliga too. Dortmund scored 10 FH goals last season, an average of 0.76 per match while Bayern scored a whopping 1.29 goals per FH away from home last season. We should mention too that Dortmund’s home form really improved towards the end of last season, where they won four of their last five games, scoring seven FH goals. We should see an entertaining first half here.
We have to pick a winner though don’t we? The Draw odds are tempting but we have to make a case for the home side here. Of their 10 most recent home league games, Dortmund have won eight, drawing and losing one apiece. Bayern have won five of their last 10 away league games, drawing two and losing two and of their last five away games in all competitions (one friendly included) they’ve only won one, drawing two and losing two.
Nagelsmann hasn’t quite stamped his authority on Bayern yet and that unsettledness is exactly what the home side can exploit. Bayern have beaten Dortmund away from home in four of their last six visits but the home side have the superior form of late and they should pull off a rare home win over their old rivals.
Over 3.5 Goals
Erling Haaland to Score Anytime
Both Teams to Score in the First Half
Dortmund to Win
The above picks in a Paddy Power Bet Builder will give you odds of around 12/1. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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