Football tips: Tap in our 19/1 Bet Builder for Leicester City v Man City in the Community Shield

Our stats guru Andrew Beasley has your picks covered for the Saturday's Wembley showdown.

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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Thank goodness that the football is back. We’ve not had any for ages, have we?

As if that’s true, it never ends. By the time the Community Shield kicks off on Saturday evening, the Championship, Ligue 1 and the Scottish Premiership will all be underway for 2021/22, and the Olympic football followed within about a week of the finals of Euro 2020 and the Copa America.

Nonetheless, this match is the traditional curtain-raiser for the new season in England, and the bad news for Manchester City is that recent history is against them…

Saturday 17:15 – Leicester City v Manchester City
ITV

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Manchester City (-1)

Ignoring the 2019 final where the double winners (City) took on the league runners-up, five of the last six Community Shields between the champions and the FA Cup winners have gone in favour of the latter.

Leicester to win, then? Can Brendan Rodgers’ great set of lads pull off another shock victory, just as they did when beating Chelsea in the cup final? As well as that triumph, they did beat each of the Premier League’s big six clubs in the league last season too. The last two cup clashes between these teams both ended in 1-1 draws (in the League Cup in 2017 and 2018) and three of the last four Community Shields have gone to penalties.

However, it’s hard to make a case for Leicester based on their pre-season form, whatever that is worth. The Foxes drew 0-0 with Burton Albion (losing on penalties), were beaten 1-0 by Wycombe, before scrambling to a 3-3 draw with QPR after being 2-0 down with 15 minutes to go.

They did beat Villarreal 3-2 on Wednesday night, though losing Wesley Fofana to a broken leg meant even that win came at a significant cost. By contrast, Pep Guardiola’s side have won their three friendlies this summer, scoring 10 goals and only conceding once (from the penalty spot). City have also only lost three of their 12 meetings with Leicester since the Spaniard took over in the summer of 2016.

The champions’ win over Chelsea in the 2018 Community Shield was the only instance in the last six holdings of the fixture that a side won by two clear goals, but City should be able to do so here as well.

Over 2.5 Goals

Leicester City were the Premier League’s great entertainers in 2020/21. Their 38 matches featured a total of 118 goals, more than any other team, and their highest-scoring match in terms of total goals was their memorable 5-2 victory at the Etihad Stadium.

With 115 total goals in their matches, the champions were only a shade behind Leicester in the goal-fest standings themselves. As they have been rattling in the goals this summer – they also won their final league game 5-0 last season – and with Leicester in defensive disarray (but with six strikes of their own in their last two games), there should be over 2.5 goals here.

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Card Index: Under 20 Points

You have to work really hard to get sent off in the Community Shield. Only six men have managed it in history, and if you can name them all, give yourself a point. The last to be shown a red card was Pedro, for Chelsea against Arsenal in 2017. Since then, it’s been hard to even get booked, let alone enjoy an early shower – as just two yellow cards have been shown in total in the last three Community Shields.

There are 11 current Premier League referees who’ve taken charge of at least 100 matches in the competition, and only three of them show yellow cards less frequently than Paul Tierney, who is the man in black for this match. Unless someone has a mad moment, there should be under 20 points in the booking market (so no more than one yellow card shown).

Riyad Mahrez To Score A Goal Anytime

When a manager has a stacked squad, as Guardiola undoubtedly does, it’s incredibly hard to predict their starting XI, never mind who from within it might find the back of the net. Having scrimped and saved and looked down the back of the sofa, City have scratched together £100m for Jack Grealish. We can’t be certain though, so let’s look to former Leicester winger Riyad Mahrez, who is in great form.

Including City’s three warm-up games this summer, the Algerian has scored in his last five appearances for club and country. It’s a shame that the last match in which he failed to net was the Champions League final, but Mahrez can continue his hot streak against his previous club.

Leicester City v Manchester City tips

Manchester City (-1)
Over 2.5 Goals
Card Index: Under 20 Points
Riyad Mahrez To Score A Goal Anytime

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