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The semi-finals for the Women’s Olympic games take place on Monday morning with the USA taking on Canada in what should be a fascinating North American derby. The second game kicks off around lunch time with Australia taking on Sweden. Let’s take a deep dive into the stats and form regarding all sides and look for some value bets.
Had the Netherlands not missed their 81st minute penalty against the USA in the quarters, they probably wouldn’t be coming into this match as favourites. However, the USA put in a good first-half performance against the Dutch and were able to bring them to extra time and penalties, where they won 4-2.
In their quarter-final Canada sent the second favourites for the tournament packing by beating Brazil. Canada dug in and really frustrated the Brazilians to force extra time and then beating them 4-3 on penalties. The USA are odds-on favourites here and are also frontrunners to take the gold medal this coming Friday.
They certainly have the better form of the two sides, winning two of their last five overall games, drawing two (winning one on pens) and losing one. Canada have won just one of their last five, drawing all four of the others (also winning one on penalties).
Since 2017 the sides have met five times, with the US winning four and one ending level. Both Teams to Score only landed in two of those games, while Over 2.5 goals was also only witnessed in two of those five matches. While the Canadians don’t have a good record in this match, they’ve scored at least one goal in seven of their last 10 games – and the US has only kept one clean sheet over the tournament so far.
Both nations are going to be a tad tired coming into this after their collective heroics last time out, so we should certainly see a few mistakes here. However, the USA have the quality and experience to come out on top.
An 89th minute goal from Australia’s Samantha Kerr forced Team GB into extra time against Australia and the Aussies scored two more goals to GB’s one in the extra period, which saw them go through. Sweden were the only quarter-final side to beat their opposition over 90 minutes, beating hosts Japan 3-1 quite comfortably.
Sweden have already beaten Australia in the Group Stage 4-2 and are odds-on favourites to do so here again. Since that game though, Australia have held the US to a 0-0 draw and obviously beaten Great Britain too. This Swedish side are full of goals, scoring 12 over their four games so far, conceding just three. Meanwhile, the Australians have scored eight and conceded eight. With records like that we should see both scoring here.
However, Sweden are the only team to win all of their games so far at the Olympics and thanks to not having to go to extra times or pens with Japan, they should have more fuel in the tank.
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