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The Copa America quarter-finals begin on Friday night with Peru taking on Paraguay before Brazil tackle Chile in the early hours of Saturday. Brazil are favourites to take the title on July 10th in Rio de Janeiro with many punters feeling that only Argentina stand in their way.
With how the draw worked out we could see both in the final but they’re obviously going to have to get their first. Let’s find some value in these quarter-final matches first.
Peru finished Group B in second place behind Brazil. Of their four matches they won two, drew one and lost one, scoring five goals and conceding seven. Paraguay finished third in Group A, behind Argentina and Uruguay, winning two and losing two of their four matches, scoring five and conceding three.
Over the last seven years these sides have met a total of eight times. Peru have won six, with Paraguay winning one, the first of those matches back in late 2014, and one, the most recent, ending level. Four of the eight matches saw Over 2.5 goals occurring, Both Teams to Score also landed in four. The market is siding with Paraguay here, however, Peru have had the better form of late.
Peru have won three of their last five games, drawing one and losing one. Paraguay have won two and lost three of their last five. Peru scored seven over those five games, Paraguay scored five and failed to score in three of those five games. Peru with their superior recent form and their exceptional previous form against Paraguay means they’re getting the nod from us here.
Brazil’s run of 10 straight wins came to an end in their final Group B match against Ecuador. Manager Tite played a rotated side and even though they went ahead before the half-time break Ecuador equalised and Brazil just couldn’t get it together in the second half. Indeed, they didn’t register a single shot on target in the second period of play.
Regardless, Brazil will have their best starting XI kicking off this match, we’ll see Neymar and Gabriel Jesus back in the team and no doubt they’ll be confident of breezing past an Alexis Sanchez-less Chile. They’ll make it a tough battle in midfield though, not much gets past Charles Aranguiz and Arturo Vidal and if anything does it usually results in a yellow card for them.
Brazil have won 10 of their last 11 games, drawing just one. Most impressively of all though, they’ve kept six clean sheets over their last eight matches. Chile have struggled for goals in the tournament so far, scoring just three goals and have only scored five over their last six games.
Brazil are quite obviously the favourites here and with their record of clean sheets matched with Chile’s struggles in front of goal our money is going on Brazil to Win to Nil here.
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