Football Tips: Our fine 5/1 double for Sunday evening’s Copa America action

Our tipster Paddy Murphy guides you through Sunday night's big Copa America games.

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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

On Sunday night we’re swinging by the Copa America to take a look at two of the final Group B matches where Brazil take on Ecuador and Venezuela face Peru. Brazil have already qualified for the next round in top spot but only two spots remain for the other three teams here. Let’s roll up our sleeves and get stuck into the stats here to find some value in the betting markets.

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10pm: Brazil vs Ecuador: Brazil (-1)

Brazil have won all three of their Group B matches so far, scoring an impressive nine goals and conceding only one. Ecuador have drawn two matches and lost one meaning they’ve chalked up just two points. Should the Venezuela v Peru match end in a draw and Ecuador lose, they’ll be knocked out of the competition and they’re going to have to try and make a dent in Brazil’s perfect record if they’re to qualify here.

Brazil are enjoying an incredibly good run of form of late, of their last 10 games they’ve won every single one of them and, even more impressively, have kept eight clean sheets over those 10 games, scoring an equally-impressive 28 goals – conceding just three. Ecuador’s recent form is pretty bad with two draws and three losses.

Sunday 10pm: Brazil vs Ecuador
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However, we must point out that in their five games prior, they won four and lost just one, scoring 15 goals. Over their five most recent games they’ve only scored five goals and conceded nine.

Brazil have beaten Ecuador by at least two goals in all three of their most recent encounters and of their last 10 games, Brazil have won by at least two goals in eight of them. Ecuador’s form is pretty bad and, while they usually do get on the scoresheet, Brazil’s recent record of clean sheets is hard to argue with. We’re going with Brazil (-1) here.

10pm: Venezuela vs Peru: Draw

Both teams can qualify for the next round here so long as Ecuador lose against Brazil. As it currently stands, Peru are third on four points, Ecuador are fourth on two and Venezuela are fifth, also on two points.

Peru are in the better form of the two teams here, they’ve won two and drawn one of their last five games, losing the other two. Venezuela have drawn three and lost two of their last five matches.

Sunday 10pm: Venezuela vs Peru
BBC iPlayer and BBC Sport Website

Venezuela have been struggling for goals as well, of their five most recent fixtures they’ve only found the back of the net three times and they came in two matches. They’ve conceded eight over those five. Peru have been doing a bit better in front of goal, scoring six and conceding 11.

The sides have met five times over the last six years with three ending level and both sides winning one each. While Peru look like the better side, certainly in front of goal, they concede quite a few and with their recent record of three draws between them over their last three matches and both just needing a draw to advance to the next stage we’re going with things to end in a Draw come full time here.

Our Copa America Sunday double

10pm: Brazil vs Ecuador: Brazil (-1)
10pm: Venezuela vs Peru: Draw

Both of these picks in a Double will give you odds of around 5/1 with Paddy Power.

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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