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For Monday’s punt we’ll be taking a swing by Wembley for the League Two Play-Off Final between Morecambe and Newport County. We’ll also be taking a look at three of the quarter finals of the Under-21 European Championships where some of the big names in European football go head-to-head against each other.
The Under-21 matches are being streamed on uefa.tv and YouTube by the way. We’ve gone deep into the stats and form to find some value, so let’s have a look at what we’ve found.
Morecambe beat Tranmere 3-2 on aggregate in their Play-off semi-final, while Newport beat Forest Green 5-4 over their two matches, needing extra time for it to be decided. Morecambe are in pretty good form, they’ve won six of their last eight matches, drawing and losing one apiece. Newport’s form is quite good too, they’ve won four of their last eight, drawing and losing two.
The odds for Both Teams to Score seem a little high here, Morecambe have averaged 1.50 goals per league match this season (conceding 1.26), while Newport have been scoring 1.24, conceding 0.91. The teams have kept two and three clean sheets over their last five matches respectively.
Over the last five meetings between the sides Over 2.5 Goals has landed in three, with Both Teams to Score landing in four. These sides rarely go without scoring two. Morecambe have netted in all but one of their last eight, Newport have scoring in all but two of their last eight.
Back at the end of March, Netherlands qualified from Group A in top spot, but only on goal difference. The top three teams, Netherlands, Germany and Romania all finished with one win and two draws, but Romania were eliminated thanks to their inferior goal difference. France did a bit better, enjoying two wins and one loss in Group C, losing to Group C winners Denmark.
Looking at their overall form, Netherlands have won two of their last five, drawing two and losing one but we should mention that prior to those five had won all 11 of their previous matches. France have won four of their last five games and had won nine of their last 10 before those.
It’s hard not to see both teams scoring here, the last time a Dutch U-21 team was kept scoreless was back in 2018 and France have only been kept scoreless in one of their last 15 games.
Spain won two and drew one in their Group B matches and are enjoying a run of form that has seen them losing just one of their last 25 matches. Of their last five, they’ve won four and drawn one. Croatia’s form isn’t quite so good, they’ve won two of their last five, drawing one and losing two.
The odds for a Spanish win are a bit too low for us, but we can exploit their winning streak. Of their previous seven matches, they’ve won by 2-0 or more in six and this Croatia side have scored 14 over their last five matches. We were tempted to go with Spain and Over 2.5 goals here, but they’re so good at winning 2-0 that we’re going with the conservative option.
Portugal advanced from Group D with a perfect record, three wins and zero goals conceded. Italy were runners up to Spain in Group B, with one win and two draws. Portugal are in great form, they’ve won all of their last 10 matches, keeping six clean sheets.
It’s hard to imagine them keeping a clean sheet against this Italian side though, they’ve netted 25 over their last 10 games, winning seven, drawing two and losing one. As you can see draws are a rare event for both teams and with a place in the semi-final up for grabs here, we reckon there’ll be a winner in 90 minutes.
15:00 Morecambe v Newport County: Both Teams to Score
17:00 Netherlands U21 vs France U21: Both Teams to Score
17:00 Spain U21 vs Croatia U21: Spain to Win and Over 1.5 Goals
17:00 Portugal U21 v Italy U21: Both Teams to Score No Draw
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