Football Tips: The 3 best bets for Liverpool v Southampton in Saturday’s late kick-off

Our tipster Andrew Cunneen expects Liverpool's 'feeder club' to give them a bloody nose this weekend.

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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

I probably don’t need to speak to the significance of this game to Liverpool fans, but for everyone else, I’ll phrase it like this: The Reds are currently a 2/1 shot to finish in the top four. If they don’t beat Southampton, you’re running out of games very quickly to bridge that gap. Not just on Chelsea, but on West Ham and Spurs. Even Everton are only a couple of points behind them.

Effectively, this is a must-win. And the idea of Liverpool having to be so focused on a Premier League game against Southampton this late in the season is unusual. That’s more to do with their success than anything else, so credit due there obviously.

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But the idea of them playing Europa League football when they’re only a year departed from winning the league title and two from a Champions League final is almost alien. The story of this clash is whether or not they can raise their performance for, on the face of it, an ordinary Premier League matchweek.

They’ve won just four of their last twelve in the league and won just a single home game since mid-December. Whether they get top four or not is one thing, but they can’t allow the league campaign to peter out and be anti-climactic. Here are your three best bets for this tension-filled encounter.

Jurgen Klopp

Short-Price Punt: Under 2.5 Liverpool Goals

The last time Liverpool scored more than two home goals in the Premier League? A 4-0 win over Wolves in early December.

It might seem like I’m poking fun at them, but honestly – even in their rare good performances at home, they’ve been controlled rather than excessive and whether that’s now by design due to the lack of Virgil van Dijk to keep the tempo up from a distribution point of view, or the fact they’re low on confidence is anyone’s guess.

But they’re not trying to score boatloads. Weirdly, the only teams they’ve scored three or more against since the turn of the year are West Ham, Spurs and Arsenal.

Value Play: Southampton and the Draw

I don’t see why not. Liverpool are pressured, and they can’t rely on either momentum or confidence to see them through.

Now, on the flipside, Southampton have only taken points in four games in the Premier League since their last win over a top-half side back in January. And that was against – oh, yeah. Liverpool.

Long Shot: 0-0 Draw

Now, you might laugh. But, around the time when these two last played, goals weren’t flying in for either of them – and that clash, bar a moment of brilliance from Danny Ings, was uneventful. Prior to that win, Southampton played out consecutive nil-all draws with Fulham and West Ham. Either side of that game, Liverpool had nil-all draws with Newcastle and Man United.

Now neither side has gone scoreless since then, but when both are shy in front of goal, it seems that their styles complement the passive nature of the other – Southampton haven’t scored more than once in any of their last three games.

Liverpool? Back-to-back 1-1 draws with Leeds and Newcastle.

Liverpool v Southampton betting tips summary:

Short-Price Punt: Under 2.5 Liverpool Goals
Value Play: Southampton and the Draw
Long Shot: 0-0 Draw

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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