* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Thursday night’s European football looks good for a few belting matches and we’ve gone through the best of the lot to find a very healthy four-fold acca.
We’ll be off to the Bundesliga where relegation-threatened Hertha Berlin must win at home to Freiburg, then to Portugal for the O Classico match and finally the Europa League semi-finals where Arsenal face Villarreal and Roma entertain Manchester United. Let’s have a look at where we’ve found some value.
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17:30: Hertha Berlin v Freiburg – Hertha to Win
BT Sport 1
Following their draw with Mainz on Monday, Hertha now find themselves three points from safety but with a game in hand. With four more games to go after this one they simply have to win here if they’re to remain in the Bundesliga next season. They’ve only lost one of their last five league matches, winning one and drawing three. Their home form has seen them win two, draw one and lose two.
Freiburg have won two of their last five Bundesliga matches, drawing one and losing two. Away from home though things are a bit worse with one win, one draw and three losses. Hertha’s home form should swing it here, they’ve scored seven over their last three at home while Freiburg have only scored three over their last six on the road. The pressure is on Hertha here and against Freiburg’s away form they should come out on top.
18:30: Benfica v Porto – Both Teams to Score No Draw
The third O Classico of the season has plenty on the line here. At the time of writing Benfica sit in third behind Porto on 66 points, Porto are four ahead on 70.
Porto have held the bragging rights over the last few seasons. Over their last five meetings in all competitions home and away, Porto have won four with just one ending level. When we look at games played at Benfica the same record applies.
Both teams are in good form: Benfica have won five of their last six at home, losing the other, while Porto have also won five of their last six on the road, drawing the other. It’s a huge match and there’s so much to play for. Should Porto win they still have time to catch Sporting who are currently six points above them.
Obviously, Benfica will be fired up to stop them and they can stake a late claim for the final Champions League place with a win. Both teams enjoy high average goal figures. Benfica are scoring 1.73 goals per home matches while Porto are scoring 2.0 on their league travels. The best value is with Both Teams to Score No Draw.
20:00: Arsenal v Villarreal – Villarreal and Draw (Double Chance)
BT Sport 2
Arsenal have no choice other than to go for it here. A 1-0 win would be enough as they’d qualify for the final on away goals but it’s a rare occasion this Arsenal side keep a clean sheet and an even rarer occasion for Villarreal to go without a goal.
Arsenal’s form has seen them win just two of their last five, drawing one and losing two while at home they’ve drawn two and lost three of their last five.
Villareal’s recent record has seen them winning three and losing two of their last five and on their travels they’ve won four and lost one of their five most recent.
The market has made Arsenal favourites to win but their home record is nothing short of awful of late and the value is with Villarreal. Let’s err on the side of caution and go with the Double Chance. We’re backing Villarreal and Draw.
20:00: Roma v Man United – Roma Over 0.5 First Half Goals
BT Sport 3
Roma need four unanswered goals to qualify on away goals and it’s difficult to see them getting four past this Man United defence. Roma were the better side at Old Trafford last week, until they fell 3-2 behind and it all fell to pieces. They’re on a terrible run of late, losing four of their last five and drawing one. At home their form is much better with two wins, two draws and one loss.
United have now gone seven matches without defeat and have won four of their last five, drawing the other. Away from Old Trafford they’ve won three of their last five, losing and drawing one apiece. Roma have scored a first-half goal in four of their last five at home in the Europa League and with them desperately needing early goals here we’re getting great odds for Roma Over 0.5 FH goals here.
Thursday’s betting tips:
17:30: Hertha Berlin v Freiburg – Hertha to Win
18:30: Benfica v Porto – Both Teams to Score No Draw
20:00: Arsenal v Villarreal – Villarreal and Draw (Double Chance)
20:00: Roma v Man United – Roma Over 0.5 First Half Goals
All of these picks in a four-fold acca will give you odds of around 20/1 with Paddy Power.
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