Football Tips: Paddy trader’s 4 best bets for the Champions League semi finals

Paddy's top football trader Jason Murphy shakes down this week's Champions League games

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Tuesday 8pm: Manchester City v Paris St-Germain

I thought this was a cracking first leg and it’s far from over. We’re just hoping for another good game. There’s a little bit of concern with Kylian Mbappe, we don’t know if he’s playing mind games. He’s been limping a bit but did play at the weekend against Lens.

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Man City had a very handy win against Crystal Palace and were able to make eight changes so will be fresh for this game. But if Mbappe’s on the pitch you just can’t take anything for granted.

Both Teams to Score

Man City, at the price they are – they don’t need to win the game, remember – are too short. They’re too short in the To Qualify market as well so the best bet I can give you here is Both Teams to Score. I think we’re going to see plenty of goals and Man City should still come out on top at the end of it.

Kevin De Bruyne to Score First

The first goal scorer tip I’m going to give you is Kevin De Bruyne to Score First. The reason being is that I imagine it’s going to be De Bruyne playing in that top role. You can have a look at Riyad Mahrez, who’s in excellent form, and Phil Foden as well.

Tuesday 8pm: Man City v PSG
BT Sport 2 and BT Sport Ultimate

But at around the same price for all three, De Bruyne to Score First is the one to go for. He’s the value. He’s on penalties and when he scores in the Champions League for Man City it tends to be the first goal. The last four he’s scored in the Champions League has been the first goal in the game for Man City.

Wednesday 8pm: Chelsea v Real Madrid

I think this is going to be a replica of the first game. It’s going to be very tight and come the 90th minute either of these sides could be going through. What is in Chelsea’s favour is a relatively easy game against Fulham in which they made lots of changes.

Real Madrid had a serious sweat against Osasuna. They did win 2-0 as well but they didn’t score until about 15 minutes from the end and they’re in a serious race for the title in Spain. So, Chelsea just a little bit fresher coming into this game.

Wednesday 8pm: Chelsea v Real Madrid
BT Sport 2 and BT Sport Ultimate

Thomas Tuchel is the only manager to have faced Real Madrid in the Champions League five times and not lost to them. It’s just going to be tight and I can’t split them with Chelsea knowing a 0-0 will suit them, I can’t back them in the 90 minutes to win.

Real Madrid to Qualify

The best bet I’m going to give you is Real Madrid To Qualify because this is just what they do. You don’t win the European Cup the amount of times they have without getting results in games like this. It’s finely balanced and what I will say is it’s just going to be a great watch.

Karim Benzema to Score a Header

Karim Benzema is the danger for Chelsea. I absolutely love him as a footballer, he’s fantastic. That goal last week was his 71st goal in the Champions League which pulls him level with Raul and there’s only three players ahead of him.

Benzema has consistently delivered since Cristiano Ronaldo left for Juventus. He’s scored over 20 goals in each season in La Liga and has scored 15 Champions League goals in that time as well so he’s doing it on the big stage for them.

But something slightly different in this game at a bigger price, is Karim Benzema to Score a Header anytime. So it’s not to score first but if he scores a header the bet’s a winner. Real Madrid like putting a lot of crosses in and Benzema, about 18% of the goals he’s scored for Real have been with his head. It’s a nice big price and he should be on the pitch for 90 minutes.

Jason’s Champions League tips

Tuesday 8pm: Manchester City v Paris St-Germain
Both Teams to Score
Kevin De Bruyne to Score First

Wednesday 8pm: Chelsea v Real Madrid
Real Madrid to Qualify
Karim Benzema to Score a Header

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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