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Tuesday night sees Manchester City taking on Borussia Dortmund in the first leg of their Champions League quarter final. City are enjoying an incredible run of form, winning 26 out of their last 27 matches in all competitions and are massive favourites to win here.
Dortmund are not in the best of form, but they’ll be all too aware that Man City have a strong history of choking at this stage of the competition. With City being on such a run do Dortmund have any hopes of causing an upset? Let’s go through the stats and form to find the three bets for this fascinating Champions League contest.
Another piece of good news for Dortmund here is that City have become a little careless at home when it comes to keeping a clean sheet of late. Over their last five home matches, they’ve conceded six goals to their opponents. To put this into some perspective, over their 10 home matches prior to these five, they’d only conceded a single goal.
Tuesday – Man City v Dortmund
BT Sport 3
Dortmund are very rarely kept scoreless on their travels, indeed of their last 20 away matches they’ve scored in all but one and with City’s defence having become quite porous (particularly in their own pitch), Both Teams to Score coming up looks like it’s almost a given.
With Pep Guardiola’s men marching to what will be their fifth Premier League title in 10 years, they’ve been sweeping teams aside and the goals have been flowing at the Etihad Stadium of late. Of their last six home matches, four saw Over 2.5 goals and two saw Over 3.5 goals.
Dortmund know only one way of playing football and with Erling Haaland in their team, they’ve become even more aggressive. Five of their last six away matches have seen Over 2.5 goals landing and four witnessed Over 3.5 goals.
We could play it safe here and go with Over 2.5 goals, but the odds have been steadily tumbling down since the market opened. When you take into consideration that City have scored two or more goals in seven of their last eight matches and, with Dortmund scoring two or more in eight of their last 10 matches, we should see plenty more goulmouth action here.
Much of the focus has been on Sergio Aguero as the days have counted down to this match thanks to the announcement of him departing City at the end of the season. He’s favourite to get his name on the scoresheet here even though he only has three goals to his name over his 14 league and CL appearances this season.
We have to look at Haaland here, the odds on him to get on the scoresheet are rarely this high. The young Norwegian has 21 goals over his 22 Bundesliga appearances this season and has 10 goals in six Champions League appearances.
He’s particularly lethal on the road, where he’s scored 10 over his last seven matches and he has also netted five over his last four away matches in the Champions League. The smart money is on Haaland to find the City net here.
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