*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at the time of publication but subject to change
After a stroll against San Marino and a comfortable-enough win in Albania, England round off the current international break with a home match against Poland on Wednesday [19.45].
If you’re of a certain age, you’ll recall a time when it felt like these two nations were always playing each other. Between Italia 90 and Euro 2000, England and Poland were drawn together in every tournament qualification programme the Three Lions took part in.
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They’ve not been anywhere near as regular foes since, with the previous qualification matches occurring ahead of the 2014 World Cup. Roy Hodgson’s side drew in Warsaw before a 2-0 win in the final game of the group sealed England’s passage to Brazil, for all the good that did them.
Yet whenever these countries meet, minds on both sides stretch back even further. Poland qualified for the 1974 World Cup at England’s expense, after a 1-1 draw at Wembley in which the shot count was reportedly 36 to two in the home team’s favour.
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England to win
The fact remains that even if the Poles triumph here, Gareth Southgate’s men would still be strong favourites to emerge from the group sat atop it – they’re currently priced at 1/10 to do so.
There’s not much in Poland’s form to suggest they can win either. In their opening match of the group they had to come from 2-0 and 3-2 down in Hungary to snatch a point. Their 3-0 home win over Andorra on Sunday was more comfortable, but they only earned one point from four matches against Netherlands and Italy earlier this season.
Wednesday, 19.45: England v Poland
ITV/ITV Hub
Robert Lewandowski has had to pull out of their squad too, which obviously doesn’t help their chances. Blame ITV for that, as they were billing this match as ‘Kane vs. Lewandowski’ during their coverage of the Albania game, the massive jinxes.
Southgate’s side are traditionally strong on home turf, having only lost two of their 25 matches on England’s green and pleasant land since he took over. And prior to their loss to Denmark, the Three Lions had won their last five home matches against teams currently in FIFA’s top 22 teams, which is where Poland currently reside. With Lewandowski out, England should win this match.
Booking Odds: Over 30 points
The Poles will battle hard to try to secure at least a draw if they can. The booking line is set at 30 points, which equates to a total of three yellow cards, and there has been at least that many in Poland’s last four matches.
For England this season, things has been much, much dirtier. In their six Nations League matches, there was a total of five red cards, each of which is worth 25 points. While it would be going too far to expect another sending off on Wednesday evening, it’s not unreasonable to expect at least four bookings so take the Over 30 Points option.
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Under 2.5 goals
These teams may not have played very often in recent years, but historically their meetings tended to be low scoring affairs – just one of the 19 previous clashes featured more than three goals, and only seven paid out on over 2.5 goals.
In recent matches against other teams of broadly similar standard (in the Nations League) the picture has been fairly similar for these countries. England’s first five matches in their group saw a total of just seven goals – before they put four past Iceland in the final game – and only half of Poland’s fixtures reached the three goal mark. Plus Southgate’s cautious nature against half decent teams has been reflected in the fact there has been a nil in the scoreline of England’s last 13 matches.
As only two of the home side’s last six games against teams currently in the top 25 in the rankings have featured three goals, go for Under 2.5 Goals here.
Mason Mount to score anytime
When looking for a goalscorer bet in this match, it would be natural to think of Harry Kane, particularly as Lewandowski will play no part. But Kane’s goal in Albania was his first in international football in the 2020/21 season, and he hasn’t scored against a top 20 ranked side in his last six matches against one.
England’s form goal scorer is actually Mason Mount, who is the only player to have netted in at least three of their competitive matches this season, and in four of their last nine. The Chelsea man can score here to help the Three Lions further along the road to Qatar.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at the time of publication but subject to change
England v Poland bet summary – Wednesday, March 31
England to win
Booking Odds: Over 30 points
Under 2.5 goals
Mason Mount to score anytime
All four of these selections in a Bet Builder will pay odds of around 25/1
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