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West Ham are having their best season in years, and their home form has been crucial to their European ambitions. They’ve won their last three at home, they’ve also only lost three games at the London Stadium all season and they are second in the home league table – only behind Manchester City.
Arsenal have been far too inconsistent this term. They followed up a great North-London Derby win over Tottenham last week with a below par performance against Olympiakos on Thursday – albeit they got the job done. It will be interesting to see if Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is brought back into the Premier League starting XI after being dropped last week and missing a host of good chances on Thursday night.
Sunday 15:00 – West Ham v Arsenal
Sky Sports Main Event / Sky Sports Premier League
Coupling Arsenal’s inconsistent performances and midweek exploits, the value is certainly with the Hammers in the match betting. Michail Antonio has continued his good form recently with two goals in his last four games and will fancy his chances coming up against a Gunners backline who have a calamitous moment or two in most games.
David Luiz and Gabriel will have more than just the powerful Antonio to deal with as well, with their top scorer this season Tomas Soucek always a huge threat from set-pieces. Jesse Lingard has also rediscovered his best form since moving to the London Stadium and was rewarded with an England call-up during the week.
It’s been great to see Jesse Lingard flourish since joining West Ham, hasn’t it? Since being freed from the pressures at a club like Man United, ‘JLingz’ has certainly been one of the signings of January window over the past few months.
He’s scored four goals and has one assist in six league appearances since joining West Ham, and it looks as though his confidence has never been higher. He used to love playing Arsenal at Man United as well, scoring four goals in his previous eight matches against them. So, we can be fairly confident he won’t be shy taking on the Mikel Arteta’s defence this Sunday.
He’s averaging 3.2 shots per 90 minutes at West Ham, so 3 or More Shots bet on him looks very appealing. He doesn’t even have to score!
I really like both teams to score in this one. I’ve spoken about the threat West Ham have been all season with Antonio, Soucek and Lingard all offering something different and I just can’t see this Arsenal team not conceding at least once in the 90 minutes.
The Gunners should also have enough to trouble the West Ham goal. Aubameyang missed a host of guilt-edge chances against Olympiakos, but we know him too well and he won’t let that affect his confidence.
Once the space opens up for him, he will pull the trigger and you still wouldn’t bet against him scoring. Arsenal have looked healthier elsewhere in terms of creating chances recently, with a better performances from Nicolas Pepe coupled with the introductions of Emile-Smith Rowe and Martin Odegaard to the side, that has adding some speed and precision to their attacking play.
West Ham’s possession stats in their last four games have been quite low (38% v Man United, 35% v Leeds, 37% v Man City, 31% v Tottenham).
That’s not to say their game plan is not effective, but it does mean they spend more time defending and in their own half. With that in mind, I’m going to side with Arsenal in the Over 5.5 Corners market. They’ve covered that bet in their last two games and they will try to use the flanks to cause West Ham problems.
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