Football tips: Tap in our 3 awesome plays for Aston Villa v Tottenham on Sunday

Our football tipster Paddy Murphy is predicting a tight affair at Villa Park.

AstonVillavTottenhamMar21

Comments

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

New to Paddy Power?

Aston Villa can cut some distance between themselves in ninth against Spurs here, who just so happen to be in eighth position in the table. No doubt Jose Mourinho’s side will feel they have a point to prove after being sent packing from the Europa League on Thursday night following a disastrous showing away at Dinamo Zagreb.

Can Villa heap more pain on them here? Let’s have a look for some value and find the Three Best Bets for this Premier League encounter.

Sunday 19:30 – Aston Villa v Tottenham
Sky Sports Main Event / Sky Sports Premier League

Draw

Villa aren’t exactly in the best of form themselves, winning just one of their last six fixtures and scoring just a solitary goal over their three most recent games. At Villa Park things are slightly better where they’ve won two, drawn one and lost two.

Spurs’ form has seen them winning three of their last five and losing two. Looking at their away Premier League form makes for some troubling reading, they’ve now lost four of their last five on the road, winning the other one and scoring a grand total of three goals.

Both teams need to improve here and somewhat paradoxically will try to take advantage of the bad form of the other. The teams have met four times over the last five years -in both the Premier League and the FA Cup – with Spurs winning all four matches, two at home, two away and they will take much confidence from that. However, their away form is dire, and Villa will be eager to extend their bad run.

The Villans aren’t scoring many goals of late at home, as over their last five home matches they’ve netted in five and in their five most recent home and away they’ve only scored three. Spurs, as mentioned above, aren’t scoring many on the road, but have been registering 1.57 goals per away league matches. There’s little doubt Spurs have the better players here, but both sides are low on goals and confidence.

Under 0.5 First Half Goals

Aston Villa are notoriously slow starters. Over their home Premier League matches this season, they’ve only scored eight goals over their 12 matches. The silver lining though is that because they’re so turgid and uneager to leave their own half, they are good at remaining compact and denying goals to their opponents. Indeed, they’ve conceded just seven first half goals over those 12 matches.

Tottenham’s averages are far better in comparison, they’ve scored 12 first half goals over their 14 away Premier League matches. However, they’ve only scored two over their last five in the league and against a Villa side who are pretty decent at keeping teams scoreless in the first half of matches, we’re getting good odds on the first half to end 0-0 here.

Under 2.5 Goals

In total, 48% of Aston Villas Premier League matches have seen Over 2.5 goals occurring. For Spurs this percentage stands at 46%, but let’s look a little further into the stats. Over their home league matches, Overs has landed in 58% of Villa matches. Meanwhile, in Spurs’ away Premier League matches, Overs has occurred in 50% of matches.

Over the course of Villa’s five most recent home league matches, only two have seen Overs landing. Spurs, for their part, have seen it occur in three of their five most recent away league games. The stats would indicate then that it’s a bit of a toss-up between Overs and Under and the market has so far sided with Overs, as the price has dropped a wee bit since opening.

As we’ve already mentioned above though, both teams aren’t in the best of form here, scoring just five and three goals respectively over their five most recent respective home/away matches. We have to go with Unders here because the recent goal-shyness of both teams in their home/away fixtures of late.

Aston Villa v Tottenham tips:

Draw
Under 0.5 First Half Goals
Under 2.5 Goals

SUNDAY TIPS:

READ MORE:

The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now

THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW

What do you think?