*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
It’s an unusual landscape in the footballing world this Saturday as we gear up for another international break with FA Cup quarter-final matches taking place. It means we’ve got just a handful of Premier League matches to enjoy, but a feast of Championship action on Saturday.
With Norwich running away with it at the top of the table, the three teams below them grace our screens on Saturday. Brentford host Nottingham Forest, Watford play Birmingham City and then it’s the main event in the shape of the South Wales derby where Swansea take on Cardiff at The Liberty. There’s some big favourites at home so let’s try and unearth some value.
12.30pm: Brentford v Nottingham Forest – Brentford & Under 2.5 Goals
Brentford are still out to avenge the disappointments of last season and Thomas Frank’s men are well placed to go one better and finish in the top two. They’re five points behind second-placed Watford in 4th but have a game in hand over the Hornets.
Nottingham Forest’s revival has stalled and they’re in 18th, nine points clear of the drop zone, but Chris Hughton’s job is only half done this season with nine games to play. The Bees are, rightly, big favourites here and the only question is, where’s the value?
Saturday 12.30pm: Brentford v Nottingham Forest
Sky Sports Football
Given both side’s recent results, I feel we need look no further than Brentford to Win and Under 2.5 Goals. Unders has landed in Forest’s last 9 games but only two of Brentford’s last five.
However, Forest do keep it tight and that’s definitely the way they’ll go in Saturday’s early game. The hosts are the better side but they will have to work hard for the win which I think will be a narrow one. Brentford to Win and Under 2.5 Goals is the way to go.
3pm: Watford v Birmingham – Watford to Win & BTTS
Another game that looks like a home banker at 3pm as second-placed Watford host the relegation-haunted Birmingham City. The Hornets badly need the win to keep their noses ahead of 3rd placed Swansea who trail them by three points but have a game in hand.
The desire for points is equally as great up at St Andrews’ for the Blues who are 21st, six points ahead of Rotherham. The big problem for City is that The Millers have a whopping four games in hand over them.
Saturday 3pm: Watford v Birmingham City
Sky Sports Football
On paper there is absolutely no doubt Watford will win here. They’ve picked up 24 points from the last 27 on offer. Birmingham did win in the week and Lee Bowyer’s been parachuted in to try and save them after Aitor Karanka was given the axe.
We’re taking the new manager bounce into account and think Birmingham will net, but we’re sticking with a Watford win. At bigger odds than Watford and Over 2.5, I’m siding with Watford to Win and Both Teams To Score in this one.
5.30pm: Swansea v Cardiff – Swansea to Win
The first south Wales derby of the season was a big turning point for both. The Swans won that game 2-0 and have upped their automatic promotion push since then. The Bluebirds went through a sticky patch, losing five of their next six after that defeat.
Cardiff are still pushing for the playoffs and sit in 8th while Swansea are, as mentioned, three points behind Watford in second with a game in hand. This is a tough one to call as the visitors do blow hot and cold – but they do look in danger of going off the boil and that could prove decisive.
Saturday 5.30pm: Swansea v Cardiff
Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Football
Swansea are pretty reliable, as their league position indicates, and have won three of their last five, despite losing last time out to Bournemouth. Cardiff have won just once in five, against Derby four games back.
With everything that’s at stake for both of these sides we’re going to keep this simple and select the Swansea Win. Cardiff look like they’re heading for another slump and, frankly, The Swans should be hungrier for the three points with the bright lights of the Premier League shining on the horizon.
Saturday’s EFL Tips
12.30pm: Brentford v Nottingham Forest – Brentford to Win and Under 2.5 Goals
3pm: Watford v Birmingham City – Watford to Win and Both Teams To Score
5.30pm: Swansea v Cardiff – Swansea to Win
These three selections in an acca will give you odds of around 30/1 with Paddy Power.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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