Football tips: Tackle our 31/1 Bet Builder for Chelsea v Man United on Sunday

Our footie trader Jason Murphy has found a top pick for Sunday’s huge game.

pjimageChelManUFeb21

Comments

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Draw

When two the “traditional” big six teams go head-to-head, we often see a lot of money for both teams, which can push the draw artificially high. Therefore, there can always be a bit of value in just backing the draw when big six clubs meets.

Particularly true if this game turns out to be anything like the reverse fixture at Old Trafford in October. I’m going for a  bore-all draw here.

Sunday 16:30 – Chelsea v Man United
Sky Sports Main Event / Sky Sports Premier League

Under 2.5 Goals

The over and under 2.5 goals are going to be very similar prices. Out of the two selections, I would rather be on the Under 2.5 goals for this game. That’s despite the fact Overs has clicked in 16 of United’s 25 games this season, which is joint highest in the league.

You can also see that their matches average 3.4 goals per game (joint highest with Leeds), but remember that is inflated somewhat with the Southampton result thrashing.

When using stats to inform your bets, context is important. Given the way Thomas Tuchel and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will approach this match, I can see it being a low scoring affair.

Note that Chelsea have seen the Unders click in more games (13) than overs (12) in the Premier League this season. The stat that also really suggests Unders is the better side of this coin, is that it has clicked in seven of eight games since Tuchel took over.

Read More:

Jorginho to be booked

Since joining Chelsea, Jorginho has been booked more than once in every four games, including six times in 14 in Champions League appearances. He is more likely to be booked in some games vs others, and this is one of those games. Chelsea won’t be 3-0 up and comfortable, because it will be tight and competitive. Jorginho sits behind the play, rarely gets ahead of the ball.

So, when The Blues get turned over high up the pitch and United break at speed (like we seen them do away from home), then Jorginho will have to get cynical. He will happily take one for the team, pull down or trip someone to stop a United attack. He was booked against Atletico Madrid during the week and was also booked in this fixture last season for, you guessed it, tripping.

Mason Mount 1 or more shots on target

Player shots on target (SOT) markets are very popular this season. It can be a good leg to add to a Bet Builder. It can juice up the price and also give entertainment for the full match (or at least while the player is still on the pitch).

Mason Mount ticks a lot of the boxes I like in a SOT bet. He has started six of Tuchel’s eight games in charge. The two games he did not start can be discounted, as they included Tuchel’s first game and the FA Cup tie at Barnsley. In those six games he started he has averaged 81 minutes. So, it’s clear that he is already an important player for Tuchel and should start here.

In the Premier League, Mount averages a shot on target every 49 minutes this season. That is not including penalties – which he might be on after converting last week at Southampton. So, Mount To Have 1 or More Shots On Target is a good final leg for a Bet Builder.

Regardless, I cannot wait to watch this game and I am only backing some legs from this Bet Builder as I am watching the game and therefore I will get a bit of entertainment from the bet. Remember you do not always have to have a bet. Please remember to gamble safely.

Chelsea v Man United tips:

Draw
Under 2.5 Goals
Jorginho to be booked
Mason Mount 1 or more shots on target

A Bet Builder on these four best bets pays at approximately 31/1 with Paddy Power.

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Bet Builder Acca Insurance

If one leg of your 4+ fold Bet Builder lets you down, you get up to £/€10 back as a free bet. Customers can qualify for 1 Bet Builder Acca Insurance per day up to £/€10. The free bets will be credited by 12pm the following day.

READ MORE:

Get the latest Football odds on PaddyPower.com

THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW

What do you think?