FA Cup tips: Paddy trader reveals his best bets and 8/1 treble this week

Paddy's top football trader Jason Murphy gets stuck into this week’s FA Cup ties with PPTV.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Tuesday 7.30pm: Man Utd v West Ham

Under 2.5 Goals

When they played in the league United won the game 3-1. West Ham are now flying. They’ve had seven wins in their last nine games. United have conceded too many goals at home this season with 18 goals in 12 league games. That’s more than they’ve conceded at Old Trafford in the whole of last season. So, there should be goals in the game.

However, as a trader, you look at this and it’s one that means a lot to both teams. United’s title hopes are now over and West Ham want the cup under David Moyes. I think this is going to be a bit cagier than expected so Under 2.5 Goals is a leg I’d be looking to include.

Tuesday 7.30pm: Manchester United v West Ham
BBC One and BBC iPlayer

Craig Dawson to Score Anytime

In terms of a goal scorer United fans can pick depending on who Ole Gunnar Solskjaer selects but I’m going to look at the West Ham angle. There’s a double over Michail Antonio’s fitness and if he doesn’t start that’s a big blow for West Ham.

So, I’m taking a punt on Craig Dawson to Score Anytime for a bit of value. We know West Ham are a great threat from set pieces and he’s scored two goals already since joining.

Wednesday 8.15pm: Everton v Spurs

Tottenham to Win

This should be a good game and what I’m going with in the 90 minutes is Tottenham to Win. These two have already met this season and it was a great away win for Everton, they won 1-0 and played some great stuff.

But the key angle for this is that Allan is out. There’s no better counter-attacking beast than this Spurs side and Allan would be key in negating that threat.

Wednesday 8.15pm: Everton v Tottenham
BT Sport 1 and BT Sport Ultimate

Son Heung-min to Score First

In terms of a first goal scorer, you’re looking at Harry Kane and Son Heung-min. Kane is shorter odds and the way Spurs are setting up this season I’d rather be on Son to Score First at the bigger price.

If you picture how a goal will be scored in this game you can see Son putting it away on the break with Kane maybe feeding him. If you’re having a goal scorer bet for this game it is Son that I’d recommend siding with.

Thursday 5.30pm: Wolves v Southampton

Southampton to Qualify

These two first played in November and the match prices are pretty similar. You’d have to say both teams have gotten worse since then but the prices are still similar.

Over the last five fixtures Wolves would be 17th in the table and Southampton would be bottom so they might both be looking forward to a cup game. Both will enjoy the change of scenery and the selection I’d make, at a bigger price than Wolves, is Southampton to Qualify.

Thursday 5.30pm: Wolves v Southampton
BT Sport 1 and BT Sport Ultimate

Che Adams to Score First

Southampton paid big money to bring Che Adams in and he’s settled in now. He’s on a bit of a drought at the moment and has gone something like 11 games without scoring.

But, looking at his numbers, his xG is about 0.35 in the league. He’s got four league goals and probably should have six or seven just going on the eye test. For me, if you’re looking for a bet on this game Che Adams to Score First is my suggestion.

Jason’s Wednesday treble

7.30pm: Leicester v Brighton – Leicester to Win

In terms of the later kick off on Wednesday I’d suggest that you put Leicester to beat Brighton in your acca. They played in the league earlier in the year and Leicester won 3-0. Leicester have a squad now that is still very strong when they rotate.

7.30pm – Sheffield United v Bristol City – United to Win

The next game is Sheffield United at home to Bristol City. Neither have played top sides to get here and they won’t in this one either. Chris Wilder has played his strongest team in the rounds previous to this and I’d expect him to put out a Sheffield United team that can Win here.

8.15pm – Everton v Tottenham – Tottenham to Win

The last one that I’d suggest is Tottenham to juice up the price. I’ve spoken about how important Allan is for Everton in combating the counter attack. There’s no better players at making the most of counters than Kane and Son so, for me, I’d side with Tottenham to Win in 90 minutes.

Jason’s FA Cup tips this week

Tuesday 7.30pm: Man Utd v West Ham
Under 2.5 Goals
Craig Dawson to Score Anytime

Wednesday 8.15pm: Everton v Spurs
Tottenham to Win
Son Heung-min to Score First

Thursday 5.30pm: Wolves v Southampton
Southampton to Qualify
Che Adams to Score First

Jason’s Wednesday treble

7.30pm: Leicester v Brighton – Leicester to Win
7.30pm: Sheffield United v Bristol City – Sheff Utd to Win
8.15pm: Everton v Tottenham – Tottenham to Win

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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