For Saturday’s European acca we’re off to the title races in Germany, Spain and Italy. In the Bundesliga Bayern Munich can extend their lead at the top, but RB Leipzg can keep the pressure on with a home win later in the day.
Real Madrid have city rivals Atletico in their sights again, but they simply cannot afford to mess up at home against Levante. Meanwhile, in Serie A we’re looking at matches involving both Juventus and Inter as they pile the pressure on league leaders AC Milan. Let’s have a look at where we’ve found some value in the betting markets.
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Bayern have beaten Hoffenheim in seven out of 10 of their recent visits to Bavaria. Two have ended all square and Hoffenheim have won one – their last league visit there. Bayern’s recent Bundesliga form is, of course, very strong. They’ve lost just one of their last 15 in the league, winning 11 and drawing three. At home at the Allianz Arena, they’ve gone 19 matches without defeat in the league – they were victorious in 15 of those matches.
Hoffenheim haven’t had the best of season, but have won two and drawn one over their last three in the league and will come into the game with some wind in their sails.
They’ve scored in all five of their most recent visits to Bayern as well, and are averaging 1.44 goals per away Bundesliga match.
We’ve written previously about Bayern’s lack of concern regarding clean sheets this season, they’re conceding 1.38 goals per home league match and against a Hoffenheim side with a good goal-scoring record we can exploit that again.
Drawing with both Elche and Osasuna were massive blunders by Real over the last few weeks and they cannot afford any more slip ups if they’re to catch Atletico at the top of the table. Real have won this fixture in eight out of the last 10 meetings, drawing one and losing one. Seven of those matches saw Over 2.5 goals, while five have seen Both Teams to Score landing.
Elche are good enough for a goal here, but we have to say that Madrid have kept three clean sheets over their five most recent home league matches. Elche’s away form is nothing to be proud of, but they are averaging 1.0 per away La Liga game. Real’s clean sheets record of late is putting us off Both Teams To Score here, but we should still see a few goals. Real need to close the gap on Atletico, Elche need to get out of the relegation zone, so we could have a few goals in this one.
Sampdoria have been a bit of a bogey team for Juventus recently and they’ve beaten them in two out of three visits while Juve won the most recent meeting. Prior to that though, they’d won four matches on the bounce. Sampdoria have won four, drawn one and lost four, and they’re averaging 1.89 goals per home Serie A match. Juve have won four, drawn four and lost one on their league travels, scoring 2.11 goals on average.
Sampdoria have scored in all of their home matches so far this season and Juve rarely keep a clean sheet on the road. However, Cristiano Ronaldo and the boys now won four of their last five in the league and should have enough to take the three points here.
Leipzig have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five in the Bundesliga, while they’ve won three, as well as drawing and losing one each of their home matches. Leverkusen have won just one of their last five in the league, drawing one and losing three in that time.
They’ve won three and lost two of their last five on the road, but Leipzig have the best home record in the league – with just one loss over their nine home matches and only six goals conceded. We’re going with the home side with those records.
Inter have now won all six of their most recent home Serie A matches, while Benevento have won just two of their last five away from home. Inter will still be buzzing from their midweek win over AC Milan, when they dumped them out of the cup and should they mess up against Bologna earlier in the day, Inter can go top with a win here.
Inter are averaging 2.0 goals in the second half of home Serie A matches this term and have scored 10 goals in the second period over their last five matches.
14:30 Bayern Munich v Hoffenheim: Bayern to Win and Both Teams to Score
15:15 Real Madrid v Levante: Real Madrid to Win and Over 2.5 Goals
17:00 Sampdoria v Juventus: Juventus to Win and Both Teams To Score
17:30 RB Leipzig v Bayer Leverkusen: RB Leipzig to Win
19:45 Inter v Benevento: Over 1.5 Second Half Inter Goals
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