* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
You would think this match would be an easy one to preview. All things being equal, Liverpool should win this game easily. I know it. You know it. Paddy certainly knows it, as the odds reflect.
But all things aren’t equal at the moment. The Reds’ injury crisis among their centre-backs has become so acute that Liverpool are having to field their Champions League winning midfield in defence, leaving Jürgen Klopp to put out virtual strangers in the centre of the park.
Thursday 8pm: Liverpool v Burnley
Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League
Sure, one of them might be Thiago Alcantara, but he hasn’t yet had a chance to form relationships with the Reds’ front three, and it has left the team looking very disjointed.
And when you’re without a league goal in your last 348 minutes of league football, the last thing you want to see gleaming as it comes over the hill is Sean Dyche’s ginger disc beard. You think West Brom and Manchester United parked the bus at Anfield? B-B-B-Baby, you just ain’t seen nothing yet.
Liverpool to win
The Clarets have a record of frustrating Liverpool in recent years too. Burnley were the only visiting side to emerge from Anfield with a point last season, and they also drew 1-1 there in the early weeks of the 2017/18 season.
However, if you’re looking for matches since the summer of 2017 where an opposition goalkeeper made at least eight saves to earn their team at least a point against Liverpool, you’ll find the aforementioned Burnley draws and otherwise the cupboard is bare. Nick Pope should expect to be kept busy.
But the problem for Klopp is that his team haven’t looked like having loads of shots on target in a match since their 7-0 romp at Selhurst Park. Liverpool have only had nine in total in the last four matches, so while it’s still fairly unlikely they’d only score once from those opportunities, they have been tapping on the door rather than battering it down recently.
And yet. And yet. And yet. How can you think anything but Liverpool to win? Whatever else is going on with Klopp’s side at the moment, this clash sees the team with the best home record in the division host the club with the second worst on the road.
The Reds aren’t going to find Burnley easy to break down, but they should have enough to bring their winless league run to a close before they head to Old Trafford in the FA Cup this weekend.
Under 2.5 Goals
Do you have any idea who Burnley’s top scorer has been for their last seven away league games? It’s got to be Ashley Barnes or Chris Wood, right? Or perhaps one of the centre-backs has bagged a few from set pieces? No, the Clarets’ top league scorer on the road since the middle of October is Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. I knew he’d signed a new contract, but I didn’t realise it was for Burnley.
The Arsenal man’s own goal at the Emirates last month is the only away goal Dyche’s men have scored recently. Liverpool should have Joel Matip back from injury, and with the former Schalke man stationed alongside Fabinho at the back, the Reds have only conceded one goal in 465 minutes. We’re not expecting a barn burner so Under 2.5 Goals is the way to go.
Both Teams To Score? No
Leaving aside Burnley’s annual 5-0 shoeing at Manchester City, The Clarets’ last six league matches away from Turf Moor have ended 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 0-0, 1-0 and 1-0. That’s less variation than a roadie doing the sound check before a gig (not that any of us can remember such a thing, it’s sad to say).
Their last four matches be they home or away have all ended 1-0 either to them (once) or their opponents (three times) and with Liverpool struggling to break teams down, Burnley’s binary run looks set to continue with Both Teams To Score? No landing in this one.
Sadio Mane to score first
But the big question remains: who is actually going to score a league goal for Liverpool ever again? You could make a case for any of Klopp’s front three, of course.
They’ve all racked up over one expected goals-worth of chances in the last four league matches. Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah have been particularly wasteful in that period, having both squandered three clear-cut chances apiece.
The Brazilian should really have scored recently, having taken 11 shots inside the penalty box and having had four of Liverpool’s eight shots on target since their last league goal. However, his finishing has been erratic for over a year now, so you never know when Bobby will score.
On that basis, let’s get behind Sadio Mané to Score First. He has four goals in his last quartet of appearances against Burnley, and scored first in the draw with West Brom and the victory over Aston Villa under-12s.
Tips for Liverpool v Burnley
Liverpool to Win
Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score? No
Sadio Mane to score first
These four selections in a Bet Builder will give you odds of around 10/1 with Paddy Power.
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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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