Football Tips: Our trader’s best bets for Sheff U v Spurs & Man City v Palace

Paddy's top football trader Jason Murphy takes a look at Sunday's action in the Premier League with PPTV.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change

2pm: Sheffield United v Tottenham

Sunday 2pm: Sheffield United v Tottenham
Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League

I see Sheffield United being competitive against Tottenham like they have been in every match this season. We’ve spoken about when they’ve lost games this season, so often it’s just been by a single goal. They’re always competitive.

The tip I’m giving for this game is Sheffield United (+1) or Sheffield United to avoid defeat. That’s purely because I think there’s value in the price. I think Spurs are too short.

Sheffield United (+1)

Sheffield United were excellent against Newcastle. Even before the sending off they were really good, really dominant. The midfield three that they’re playing at the moment, they’re playing really well.

The Blades to avoid defeat is a great bet here. Spurs actually seem to be a bit short. They drifted against Fulham and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them drift a bit more before kick off in this one. So Sheffield United (+1) is what I’d be backing here.

David McGoldrick to Score First

I think there’s a bit of an angle in David McGoldrick. The reason being, if you look at Spurs’ weakness, for me it’s Serge Aurier. He’s very good going forward but at times his positioning leaves a lot to be desired.

If you look at the goal they conceded against Fulham it came down his side and was finished off very nicely. With those pockets of space there’s no better man than David McGoldrick to exploit them and I think he’ll get a couple of chances against Spurs and I fancy him to take one of them.

I’d back McGoldrick to Score First as I don’t see there being too many goals in this one. If Spurs do go a goal up it will be very hard for Sheffield United to beak them down.

7.15pm: Man City v Crystal Palace

Sunday 7.15pm: Manchester City v Crystal Palace
Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League

You’ve got to side with Manchester City against Crystal Palace and it’s all about finding the value. Palace haven’t been easy for City to beat in the past few seasons.

The best value on offer is Man City: Half Time/Full Time. If you look at the nine wins that City have had this season they’ve been winning all of those games at half time.

Half Time/Full Time: Man City

If you look at the chances created for City over their last eight games they’ve been producing 2.5 xG per games. That’s essentially twice as good as an average team which would expect to record around 1.3/1.4 per game.

For me Man City are back and Pep Guardiola has them purring at the moment so that Half Time/Full Time Man City is the way to go in terms of value with Man City in this game.

Kevin De Bruyne to Score First

I’ve had a bit of luck with Phil Foden in the goal scorer markets recently but I went Ilkay Gundogan during the week and Foden popped up again. Man City are going to be playing midweek pretty much every week not until the end of the season.

A little tip is to have a look and try to gauge what team they’re going to play because they’ll be rotating a lot. But, for me, in this game, I’m going for Kevin De Bruyne to Score First because the man is just a phenomenon.

His number in terms of attacking output, shots and quality of chances is the best since they’ve been keeping this data. He’s getting over 0.5 xG per game, he had five shots against Brighton the other night.

Raheem Sterling missed a penalty in that match and I think if they get one this weekend De Bruyne will be back on them. He’s getting plenty of chances with they way they’re set up at the moment and for me Kevin De Bruyne to Score First is the way to go.

Jason’s tips for Sunday

2pm: Sheffield United v Tottenham

Sheffield United (+1)
David McGoldrick to Score First

7.15pm: Man City v Crystal Palace

Half Time/ Full Time: Man City
Kevin De Bruyne to Score First

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change

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