On Sunday our European football tipster Paddy Murphy is taking a look at the title races in the Netherland’s Eredivisie and in Italy’s Serie A. Just three points separate Ajax and Feyenoord at the top of the Dutch league and this could be the turning point in the season for both teams when full time comes.
In Italy second-placed Inter take on fourth-placed Juventus in the 90th Serie A Derby D’Italia at the San Siro. The home side can overtake AC Milan at the top with a victory, while Juventus need the three points to get back into the top three. With so much to play for these matches are going to be fascinating. Let’s have a look for some value in the markets.
Ajax are on a good run of form and they’re unbeaten over their last six matches. At the Johan Cruijff Arena things aren’t so rosey though as they’ve won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five league matches there. Feyenoord’s form is quite good too, they’ve won four of their last five in the league, and looking at just their away matches their record is the same.
Ajax’s home history against Feyenoord is fantastic, they’ve not lost to them since 2005 – a run of 15 wins and two draws. We should see a few goals here and the market is thinking along the same lines. Ajax are averaging 3.38 goals per home league match, while Feyenoord are scoring 2.38 on their league travels.
Both Teams to Score has landed in five out of eight home Ajax matches and in four out of Feyenood’s eight on the road. Ajax have scored 12 second half goals over their eight home ties, while Feyenood have scored seven over their eight. Both teams are getting most of their goals in the second period of play as well – 50.9% and 75% respectively – and the odds on BTTS in the Second Half are too good to refuse with those stats.
This is such a huge match for both teams. Inter can leapfrog city rivals AC Milan for at least 24 hours should they bag all three points here. Juventus, for their part, can claw their way back into the title race should they take the three points as they’ll then be just a point behind Inter in the table.
Inter’s league form has slid a little, they’ve drawn and lost their last two fixtures and had been unbeaten over their 11 prior to that, nine of which were wins. Juventus have lost just one of their last 15 Serie A matches and away from home they’re unbeaten over their last eight – four wins and four draws.
Interestingly when looking at home and away matches for the sides they share a stat. Five out of Inter’s eight home league matches have been level at half-time, for Juventus the stat is the same. Add to this the fact that five out of the last seven league meetings at the San Siro have also been level at half-time and you can see where our money is going.
- Liverpool v Man Utd Tips: Phil Thompson takes on Paddy trader in best bets battle
- Football tips: Our 3 best bets for Man City v Crystal Palace on Sunday night
- Football tips: Our trader’s best bets for Sheff U v Spurs & Man City v Palace
- Football tips: Marvellous Morelos can help land our 3 Motherwell v Rangers punts
- Football tips: Son to shine but same old story for Spurs at Sheff Utd