Football Tips: Derby to edge past Sheffield Wednesday on New Year’s Day

What a way to start 2021 - a basement battle in the Championship.

Comments

*All odds in copy correct at time of publication and they’re always bang on with our clever live betting banners.

2020’s finally over and the Championship’s opening game of 2021 features two clubs who’ll be hoping for much better fortunes over the next 12 months compared to the last dozen. Sheffield Wednesday and Derby have almost had more managers between them than league wins this season.

Tony Pulis has come and gone at Sheffield Wednesday after Garry Monk was given the boot in November. Pulis’ reign lasted just 10 games which saw one win. If you’re not getting wins with Pulis then he doesn’t really have much else going for him and he quickly paid the price for poor results.

Friday 5.30pm: Sheffield Wednesday v Derby
Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Football

Phillip Cocu was allowed to hang around Derby for a little longer than he may have expected after their shocking start, but he was sacked five days after Monk as the struggling Championship sides started to make moves. They’re now managed by a caretaker team including Wayne Rooney and Liam Rosenior and they have started to reap rewards recently – but it would actually have been more difficult to do worse.

As both sides stumble drunkenly into a new year, celebrating a rare win each last time out, Wednesday are 22nd and Derby are 20th in the second tier with nine wins between them from a combined 43 games. This is a tricky puzzle to piece together but let’s try and kick off 2021 with a bang – here’s your three best bets.

Derby to Win

We tipped up Derby to Win on Tuesday night and they duly delivered in style – thumping Birmingham 4-0 away from home. Sheffield Wednesday also recorded a rare win with a 2-1 victory over Middlesbrough on home soil.

Wednesday have now won two of their last three games, drawing the other but losing the four prior to that. The Rams have won three of their last six with a loss and two draws also featuring in that run.

Something’s clicked at Derby and while they’ve generally been involved in low-scoring games, that four-goal win in the week could be a sign that the corner has well and truly been turned. The Owls are improving but The Rams just look to be a little further down the road and we’re backing Derby to claim another Win on Friday evening.

Both Teams To Score? No

Both of these sides have been struggling at both ends of the pitch. Before Tuesday, Derby had scored 10 and Sheffield Wednesday had netted just 12 times. That’s an appalling combined 22 goals in 41 games. That’s improved slightly to 28 in 43 heading into this game.

While both have been considerably more leaky than lethal, with 23 conceded for each, you should expect this to be tight and nervy affair despite Tuesday’s relative goal fests.

Both Teams To Score? No has come off in Derby’s last six games and three of Wednesday’s games over the same period. At a decent price it’s worth backing Derby to dominate here and keep their run of Both Teams To Score? No ticking along.

Under 1.5 Goals

Which leads us on nicely to our next tip. Sheffield Wednesday had been shipping goals despite having Pulis being in charge. However, England and Manchester United’s record goal scorer, Wayne Rooney has installed a newfound defensive solidarity at Derby that Pulis would have loved at Hillsborough.

In Derby’s last six there have been eight goals at an average of 1.33 with half of those coming in one game. Wednesday’s average is a lot higher at 2.16 in the same timeframe but they’ve scored just five in their last six, an average of 0.83 per game.

Derby had being painfully goal shy up until Tuesday’s big win, but one thing they have been decent at is keeping the goals out. We’re not expecting too many thrills here despite Tuesday’s statistically freaky results and Under 1.5 Goals is the value play.

Tips for Sheffield Wednesday v Derby

Derby to Win
Both Teams To Score? No
Under 1.5 Goals

If you want to put these three selections into a Bet Builder you will get odds of around 6/1 with Paddy Power. However, a three-legged Bet Builder will not get acca insurance as that only applies to four-fold bets.

*All odds in copy correct at time of publication and they’re always bang on with our clever live betting banners.

MORE TOP TIPS FOR NEW YEAR’S DAY

Top tips for Saturday:

Read More

Get the latest EFL odds on PaddyPower.com

THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW

What do you think?