Wednesday night sees some of the cream of Europe in action in their domestic leagues, and we’ve gone through the stats and odds to find some value in the markets.
In Italy’s Serie A Juventus are at home to Atalanta while Inter take on Napoli at the San Siro. In the German Bundesliga, Bayern Munich are at home to Wolfsburg and finally Barcelona take on Real Sociedad in La Liga. Let’s have a look then at our value picks.
Bit of an early kickoff here so you’ve been forewarned. This had usually been a tough match for the away side but over the past two seasons they’ve come away with two draws. Prior to that Atalanta had lost 10-in-a-row in all competitions against the Old Lady in Turin.
The market is liking the look of goals here and both teams are averaging just above two per match over their home and away matches. Only two out of their five most recent matches in Turin have seen Over 2.5 goals though, three saw Both Teams to Score occurring.
With those stats the current price on Overs just isn’t doing it for us but instead we can look to the goalscorers market.
Cristiano Ronaldo is obviously the favourite here, he has scored three in four previous appearances against Atalanta and with him having scored five over his last four matches we have to go with the Portuguese legend here.
Bayern have faced Wolfsburg 27 times at home in all competitions over the years. They lost none of those matches. Indeed, Wolfsburg’s recent record is so bad when visiting the Bavarians that they’ve only scored in one out of their five most recent visits.
We’re written previously on these pages about Bayern’s lack of clean sheets this season, conceding seven goals over their five home Bundesliga matches and it’s something we’ve been able to exploit.
Wolfsburg’s record there is terrible but they’ve scored at least two goals in five out of five recent Bundesliga matches and have scored at least one in six out of six previous away league matches.
They have to end that terrible run of no goals at the Allianz and we’re getting good odds here for a Wolfsburg team that are in fine goal-scoring form of late. We’re going with Bayern to Win & BTTS.
Like the Juventus match above the market really fancies goals here but none of the last six meetings between the pair at the San Siro have seen Over 2.5 goals. None of them even saw BTTS occurring. We can’t see those trends continuing here. Inter are in great scoring form. They’ve netted 14 over their five home league matches this season, conceding 10 as well. Napoli haven’t been so hot with just nine goals for and just four against on their league travels.
Inter have scored at least two goals in five out of six previous home league matches and with them being in such great form it’s hard not to see it occurring again. Napoli though have improved in front of goal of late, scoring 10 over their last three Serie A matches. With both teams chasing AC Milan above them in first position they’ll both be going for this and we should see plenty of goalmouth action. We’re going with BTTS Two or More Goals here.
Sociedad are back on top of La Liga even though they’ve failed to win any of their three most recent league matches. Barcelona are improving of late but they’re still far from the finished product having won three and lost two of their five most recent league matches.
Their home form is good though, they’ve won their last three at the Nou Camp, keeping two clean sheets while Sociedad have won four out of their last five, drawing the others.
Tough to call this match, Barca can beat anyone on their day but Sociedad are great at disrupting how teams like to play and they could really frustrate the home side here.
Barca are averaging 2.6 goals per home league game while Sociedad are averaging 2.0 over their away matches. Over 3.5 goals is a fair price but we’re going to err on the side of caution here and go with BTTS.
Wednesday’s European acca
17:30: Juventus vs Atalanta – Cristiano Ronaldo to Score Anytime
19:30: Bayern Munich vs Wolfsburg – Bayern to Win & BTTS
19:45: Inter vs Napoli – BTTS Two or More
20:00: Barcelona vs Real Sociedad – BTTS
All four of these picks in a four-fold Acca will give you odds of 25/1
*All odds in copy are correct at time of publication and they’re always bang on with our clever betting banners.
If one leg of your 4+ fold Acca lets you down, you get up to £/€10 back as a free bet. Customers can qualify for 1 Acca Insurance per day up to £/€10. The free bets will be credited by 12pm the following day.
More top tips for Wednesday
- Kane to publish Liverpool as Spurs head to Anfield
- Brighton and Palace away wins will seal 10/1 double
Thursday’s best bets
Sheffield United v Man Utd
Aston Villa v Burnley