Football Tips: Paddy’s top trader reveals his Sunday selections for the early kick-offs

Paddy's football trader Jason Murphy takes a look at the lunchtime action in the Premier League on Sunday.

12pm: West Brom v Crystal Palace

Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League

This is an absolutely massive game. I tipped up both of these teams to go down at the start of the season and come the end of the year, if one of these two teams was to stay up, you’d probably look back to a win for either in this game as being an important factor in that.

West Brom to Win

If you’re looking for a bet in this one, it’s all about Wilfried Zaha. So, within an hour of kick-off, have a look at the team news. If Zaha’s playing you’re looking to get on the positive markets with Palace.

He’s waiting on a negative Covid test. If Zaha is not available and West Brom are 7/4 or bigger then West Brom are the angle here. If there’s no Zaha, West Brom to win at 7/4 or bigger is a good bet.

Both Teams To Score? No

Under 2.5 Goals is going to be short so the angle I’d go with is Both Teams to Score? No. You’ll get a slightly better price. Both of these have not been creating chances.

The quality of the chances that they do create per match is poor. Palace’s xG is 0.9 per game and West Brom’s is 0.6. I’d be going Both Teams To Score? No as the best bet. If one team does score they’ll shut up shop and make it hard for the other team.

Wilfried Zaha

2.15pm: Sheffield United v Leicester

Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League

Last season Sheffield United were very hard to beat at home and obviously the fans played a big part in that. The tip I have for this game is that I’m going to side with Sheffield United in the handicap market.

Sheffield United (+1)

If you look at this game last year it was really, really competitive. Leicester actually won it 2-1 and Jamie Vardy pounced on a mistake from the Blades defence. Sheffield United were really competitive and I don’t see much difference in these two sides from last season to now, bar the defensive issues United are having with Jack O’Connell missing at the back.

Their xG against is, ok it’s not great, they need to get it back to where it was last season. It’s their xG for that’s really making a difference. If you look at what they’ve created this season in terms of quality chances, they should have 12 goals scored, they’ve only scored four and that’s a massive issue.

But, like I said, with this angle of Sheffield United to avoid defeat they don’t have to score so you don’t necessarily have to worry about that. Leicester also had the game on Thursday night in Ukraine in the Europa League.

It wasn’t that big a game for them, they could have rested a few players, but you still have to travel to Ukraine and that’s the big advantage that the teams not in European football have. Chris Wilder can just motivate, drill his team to be ready for this game and, at the price, I really do like Sheffield United (+1) on the handicap to avoid defeat.

Jason’s tips for Sunday’s early games

12pm: West Brom v Crystal Palace

West Brom to Win
Both Teams To Score? No

2.15pm: Sheffield United v Leicester

Sheffield United (+1)

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