Italy, Germany and Spain is where we’re off to for Saturday’s European football Acca. We’ve whipped together a five-fold here involving Inter, Bayern Munich, Valencia vs Atletico Madrid, a free-scoring Borussia Moenchengladbach and Real Madrid – who are just coming off the back of a 0-2 win away at Inter where they’d been all but written off.
Let’s have a look then at where we’ve found some value in these matches.
The dreaded early kickoff. Managers hate it, players hate it and punters claim the early matches lack goals. Well, they could be on to a winner if that’s the case here. Three out of the last four meetings at the Citta del Tricolore have ended either 1-0 and the home side are second in the league to Inter’s bitter city rivals AC Milan. They’re unbeaten over their eight league matches with five wins and three draws, scoring 20 and conceding nine.
Inter blew it against Real Madrid midweek, with Madrid missing many of their star players. Antonio Conte’s side, as usual, failed to produce the goods on the night. Their league form is decent though, four wins, three draws and one loss, scoring 20 and conceding 13. Looking at away vs home form though and we might see a lack of goals here. Over 2.5 goals has only landed in two out of five previous home Sassuolo matches and in one of Inter’s last five on their league travels. While the market is expecting goals, form suggests otherwise. Under 2.5 goals at very decent odds that are too good to say no to.
Stuttgart’s league position is a bit on the flattering side. They’re currently eighth on 16 points but they’ve won just two matches so far this season, drawing five and losing just one, scoring 16 and conceding 12. Bayern are, as usual, top of the league with six wins, one draw and one loss, 28 goals scored and 12 conceded.
Both Teams to Score has landed in four out of four previous home Bundesliga matches for Stuttgart this season and have also landed in all of Bayern’s away league matches this campaign. It’s hard to make an argument for Bayern to lose here, they’ve not lost a league match in Stuttgart since 2007 so we’re going with Bayern to Win and BTTS at pretty healthy odds indeed.
Valencia’s league form is worrying, they’ve won just one of their last five matches, although their home form is a little better, two wins, two draws and one loss over their last five at the Estadio de Mestalla. Atletico are unbeaten over their last seven matches in all competitions and their away form in La Liga has seen them now go 11 matches without a loss; five victories and six draws.
BTTS is making flirty eyes at us here. Valencia have scored in 13 of their last 15 at home in the league and Atletico have done so in 11 out of their last 16 on the road. It has also landed in all four of their previous meetings over the last two seasons between the side. With those stats we can’t say no to the BTTS odds on offer.
‘Gladbach have been pretty impressive in their Champions League matches this season but it has come at the detriment of their Bundesliga form where they’ve won just three of their eight matches, drawing three and losing two, scoring 13 and conceding 13.
Schalke. Poor Schalke, they look doomed already and we’re only eight games in. No wins so far, three draws and five losses, scoring just five goals and conceding 24. They’ve only scored in one of their last five Bundesliga matches on the road. The odds on BTTS: No indicate the market thinks Schalke will score here, with those stats and the price on offer we’re going with the value here and saying they won’t.
Real are short-odds favourites to win here. The last time Alaves beat them as the away team was in 2000. Real have had a few bumps this season but of late their form has definitely improved, they’ve now won four out of their last five at home in the league, scoring nine, conceding three and keeping two clean sheets.
Alaves have won one, drawn two and lost two over their last five league matches on the road, scoring in all five and keeping just one clean sheet. Since returning to Spain’s top-flight Alaves have failed to score in all of their four matches against Real. However, Zinedine Zidane’s side are in a different ground for this season and they’ve conceded in two out of their three home league matches there, and with Alaves in good goal-scoring form we’re going with BTTS.
Saturday’s European footy accumulator tips
2pm: Sassuolo vs Inter – Under 2.5 Goals
2.30pm: Stuttgart vs Bayern Munich – Bayern to Win & BTTS
3.15pm: Valencia vs Atletico Madrid – BTTS
5.30pm: Borussia Monchengladbach vs Schalke – BTTS: No
8pm: Real Madrid vs Alaves – BTTS: Yes
All five of these picks in a five-fold Acca will give you some whopper odds of 39/1.
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