Football tips: We’re on the goal hunt in tonight’s 10/3 Nations League double

Paddy Murphy is hoping defenders have the night off

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change

Tuesday night sees half of the teams involved in the Nations League finishing their campaigns. To mark the occasion, we’re taking a look at some of the big clashes in League A where Croatia take on a Portugal team who can top Group Three with a win. They’ll need France to lose to Sweden at home though…

Let’s have a look at where we’ve found some value in the markets.

7.45pm: Croatia v Portugal – Over 2.5 Goals

Croatia have been nothing short of awful over their Group Three campaign, winning just one of their five matches and losing all four of the others. Portugal, on the other hand, have been quite good – winning three, drawing one and losing just one.

A win here could see them finish top dog as they have the better goal difference when compared to France, but they do need the French to lose at home which is pretty unlikely.

Croatia’s overall form might be terrible but their home form has seen them win eight out of eleven since the last World Cup, losing two and drawing one while they scored at least two goals in eight of those matches. Portugal’s away record is very good, as you’d expect. Since the World Cup, they’ve played nine – winning six, drawing two and losing one – and scored two or more goals in six of those matches.

With some pride to restore for the home side and with Portugal chasing top spot we should see some goalmouth action here and the odds on Over 2.5 goals at the time of writing are certainly generous.

MORE TIPS: Our 3 best bets for Spain v Germany tonight

Cristiano Ronaldo Portugal Nations League

7.45pm: France v Sweden – Both Teams to Score

France have conceded just three goals over their five matches in Group Three, while Sweden have only scored three, having conceded nine – it’s been a bit of a step too far for Janne Andersson’s team since being promoted to League A. They’ve been awful, apart from grinding out a 2-1 win over an out-of-sorts Croatia over the weekend.

France’s Win to Nil price had caught our eye at first, especially with after conceding only three times over their Nations League games so far. However, looking into their overall home form the French don’t tend to keep many clean sheets.

Over their six most previous home matches they’ve conceded at least once in five of them and Sweden usually get on the score sheet in their away games. Of their seven most recent away matches, they’ve scored in five and knowing that Finland beat the French 2-0 less than a week ago means they’ll be confident of getting one here.

The value is actually the opposite of what caught our eye at first – the value is with Both Teams to Score at some very healthy odds.

Antoine Griezmann France Nations League

Nations League Tuesday double

Croatia v Portugal (7.45pm) – Over 2.5 Goals
France v Sweden (7.45pm) – Both Teams to Score

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change

AN EARLIER VERSION OF THIS STORY FEATURED TIPS FOR SWITZERLAND V UKRAINE. SINCE THE ARTICLE WAS PUBLISHED THE GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED, AND THE COPY UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.

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