*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
It was a busy weekend in the race for Champions League football, even with some of the contenders out of action thanks to the Carabao Cup final.
Paddy Power’s outright markets for the Premier League include backing teams for a top 4, top 5 or top 6 finish. As this is where the bulk of the remaining interest lies in 2024/25, our five things we learned this week mostly looks at the runners and riders in the battle for European qualification.
Forest’s Champions League dream is alive
You didn’t need any help from a fortune teller to know Nottingham Forest were going to win at Ipswich. A look at the league table would’ve been all the research required.
But such is Forest’s record this season that you can put them down to win against any side below 10th. Wolves picked up a point at the City Ground way back in August, but the Tricky Trees have won 12 out of 12 against sides currently in the bottom half otherwise.
They have a points-per-game record in such matches that not even Liverpool or Arsenal can match. What’s more, only two of Forest’s final nine matches are against teams in the top 10.
Plot a course for the Champions League, boys.
The Seagulls are soaring
Who’d have thought getting thrashed 7-0 by Forest would be a good thing?
Sure, it will have stung Brighton at the time. But they have been the best team in the Premier League across the five match weeks since, edging Liverpool into second place on goal difference.
The Seagulls picked up a point at Manchester City on Saturday, twice coming from behind to earn it. In truth they deserved to win, as aside from Erling Haaland’s penalty, Brighton had five of the six highest value chances in expected goal terms.
Similar to Forest, Fabian Hurzeler’s side only have three top half teams left to face, one of which is Liverpool in mid-May when they’ll likely have a post title hangover. Brighton’s prices for a top 4, 5 and 6 finish are all worth considering.
Chelsea’s campaign to peter out?
Arsenal’s turgid 1-0 win over Chelsea summed up 2024/25 for both clubs.
For the Gunners, this was their fifth one-goal win in the Premier League, the third of which included a goal from a corner.
They created just 0.6 xG in open play, with their season-long figure for this metric only a shade ahead of Brentford and Crystal Palace. Combined with a strong defence, it is no surprise Arsenal top the Under 2.5 Goals table.
As for Chelsea, they are incapable of beating anyone even vaguely competent. It’s now over three months since they defeated a side outside the current bottom five in the league.
Based on opposition points-per-game averages, the Blues have the hardest remaining fixtures of the top seven. They might be fourth but backing Chelsea to finish in the top five does not look a sensible investment on current form.
Fulham the dark horses
What of Fulham? Their 2-0 win over Tottenham on Sunday took them to within three points of the top five. The expected points data for this season suggests they deserve to be even higher than that.
They are a sort of anti-Forest, in the sense that they have a better record against top half sides than when facing the bottom 10. No other side in the division can say the same.
Granted, they beat 14th place Tottenham this weekend, but they are one of the big clubs even if their league form says otherwise. While Fulham have a tough run-in, their record means they very much have a chance of grabbing a European spot.
Back goals for the rest of the season
Thanks to Jake O’Brien’s 91st minute goal for Everton, all five games on Saturday saw both teams score. The Toffees’ 1-1 draw with West Ham was the only one which didn’t see at least three goals too.
Despite the flurry of goals this weekend, 2024/25’s weekly rates for matches in which both teams scored or there were over 2.5 goals (both 5.8) are still down on last season.
However, six of the final nine matchweeks in 2023/24 featured at least seven games with goals at both ends, with five weeks seeing the same number of fixtures with 3+ goals.
The season-wide rates might be down but with some teams heading for the beach before the campaign is over, a crescendo of goals is on the cards. Bet accordingly.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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