It was a typical 2024/25 weekend in the Premier League.
Liverpool won while Arsenal huffed and puffed. The bottom three all lost, scoring just once between them, with four of the five teams above them drawing to edge away painfully slowly.
The remaining interest lies in the quest for Champions League qualification. Let’s get into five things we learned in the Premier League this week.
Mo Salah – Spot-kick King
Liverpool probably assumed they would sweep Southampton aside on Saturday. Saints’ midfielder Will Smallbone thought otherwise, though after giving the visitors a shock lead at Anfield he conceded the penalty from which the Reds went 2-1 up.
Mohamed Salah dispatched that, as was a second spot-kick two minutes from full time. The latter was Liverpool’s ninth penalty of their league campaign.
While they are unlikely to match Manchester United’s Premier League record of 14 from 2019/20, the Reds’ nine have all been taken and converted by Salah. He’s now only one off equalling the individual record of 10 spot kicks scored in a season, jointly held by five players.
Without penalties, Salah would’ve ‘only’ scored in 16 league games this season. Thankfully for goal scorer bettors, he’s now netted in a further six thanks to being flawless from the spot.
Pep’s poor travellers
Paddy Power had Manchester City as favourites to win at the City Ground on Saturday lunchtime. Was it a surprise that Nottingham Forest won 1-0 though?
You wouldn’t have been shocked had you paid attention to several factors. The underlying expected goal data shows how bad the Cityzens have been, with an xG-based prediction making Nuno Espirito Santo’s side favourites.
If you don’t trust the nerdy numbers, a glance at City’s away record would’ve sufficed. They opened the season by winning 2-0 at Chelsea but haven’t won away to a team currently above 13th in the table since.
Their only remaining such game is at Fulham on the final day, so this poor record won’t matter much more this season. However, games like their loss at Forest have been all too easy to predict.
Eagles miss Mateta
There’s one more match week until the next international break. Most fans hate them and one team who won’t be grateful for the rest are Crystal Palace. They’ve been the third-best team in the division since the November break.
At face value, their 1-0 home win over strugglers Ipswich doesn’t look very impressive. Look under the bonnet, though.
Palace should’ve battered the Tractor Boys. While they missed Jean-Philippe Mateta, Eberechi Eze had the joint-most shots in the Premier League this weekend (six). Only three players have had 3+ shots in more matches this term, Eze is a good selection in shots markets.
The Eagles’ total of 3.4 expected goals on Saturday is the fourth highest a team has had in the Premier League when not scoring more than once in the last eight seasons. Funnily enough, Arsenal against Manchester United in 2017 is at the top of that list, but their game from this weekend isn’t worth discussing here.
Palmer’s penalty problem
What has happened to Cole Palmer? Perhaps he’s just exhausted after carrying Todd Boehly’s billion-dollar vanity project (also known as Chelsea) on his back for the last 18 months.
Palmer’s perfect Premier League penalty record disappeared against Leicester, as he missed one for the first time. His recent drought is even more notable.
The former City man has failed to score in his last nine matches in all competitions. He had at least three shots in six of those games, seven twice and 33 efforts in total.
Palmer was over-performing against xG before this run, so perhaps a cooling off was inevitable. For now, keep him off your goal scorer selections until he sparks back into life.
The Cherries suffer from Spursiness
We should have known Tottenham might come back to get something against Bournemouth after going behind, not least because the visitors had Kepa Arrizabalaga in goal.
The average time at which a Cherries league match paid out on Both Teams to Score bets this season is 65 minutes, which is the latest for any side in the division. It’s also when Evanilson put Bournemouth 2-0 up on Sunday. Two minutes later, Pape Sarr’s goal started the comeback.
For all the continued talk of Spursiness, there’s been a lot of fight in Tottenham over the years. Optajoe revealed only Manchester United have recovered points in more Premier League games when at least two goals down than Spurs have.
If you’re betting in play, don’t rule out late goals in Bournemouth games, and don’t dismiss the possibility of Tottenham recovering when all looks lost. Other teams occasionally suffer from Spursiness.
READ MORE
- Shoot on over to Paddy Power News for the best Football Betting Tips & News
- Premier League title odds: Who will win the crown this season?
- Premier League relegation odds: Who are the favourites for the drop this season?
- Introducing Super Sub 2.0: Now with even more markets, including a raft of 2+ and 3+ options!
- Next Premier League manager to be sacked: Latest sack race odds for 2024/25 season
The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now
THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
